自2005年至今，默克爾已經(jīng)執(zhí)政10年，德國(guó)一直處于繁榮的"默克爾時(shí)代"。但今年，大量涌入難民帶來(lái)的各種問(wèn)題，或?yàn)檫@個(gè)時(shí)代畫(huà)上句號(hào)。

At the beginning of this year, Angela Merkelhad a good claim to be the most successful politician in the world. The German chancellor had won three successive election victories. She was the dominant political figure in Europe and hugely popular at home. But the refugee crisis that has broken over Germany is likely to spell the end of the Merkel era.
今年初，安格拉·默克爾有很好的理由號(hào)稱世界上最成功的政界人士。這位德國(guó)總理已連續(xù)三次勝選。她是歐洲最具影響力的政治人物，在國(guó)內(nèi)也廣受歡迎。然而，沖向德國(guó)的難民危機(jī)很可能預(yù)示著"默克爾時(shí)代"的終結(jié)。

But the refugee crisis that has broken over Germany is likely to spell the end of the Merkel era. With the country in line to receive more than a million asylum-seekers this year alone, public anxiety is mounting — and so is criticism of Ms Merkel, from within her own party. Some of her close political allies acknowledge that it is now distinctly possible that the chancellor will have to leave office, before the next general election in 2017. Even if she sees out a full term, the notion of a fourth Merkel administration, widely discussed a few months ago, now seems improbable.
由于僅今年就要接收超過(guò)100萬(wàn)尋求庇護(hù)者，德國(guó)公眾的焦慮情緒正在上升，黨內(nèi)對(duì)默克爾的批評(píng)也越來(lái)越多。幾位與她關(guān)系密切的政治盟友承認(rèn)，現(xiàn)在看來(lái)很有可能的是默克爾不得不在2017年下屆大選前下臺(tái)。即使她做完這一任期，幾個(gè)月前還被廣泛討論的第四屆默克爾政府如今看來(lái)已不太可能。

In some ways, all this is deeply unfair. Ms Merkel did not cause the Syrian civil war, or the troubles of Eritrea or Afghanistan. Her response to the plight of the millions of refugees displaced by conflict has been bold and compassionate. The trouble is that Ms Merkel's government has clearly lost control of the situation. German officials publicly endorse the chancellor's declaration that "We can do this". But there is panic just beneath the surface: costs are mounting, social services are creaking, Ms Merkel's poll ratings are falling and far-right violence is on the rise.
從某些方面看，這一切對(duì)默克爾非常不公。敘利亞內(nèi)戰(zhàn)、厄立特里亞或阿富汗的困境并非默克爾造成。她對(duì)數(shù)百萬(wàn)因沖突而流離失所的難民的回應(yīng)是大膽而富有同情心的。問(wèn)題是默克爾政府顯然已經(jīng)失去了對(duì)局勢(shì)的控制。雖然德國(guó)官員公開(kāi)支持總理的聲明——"我們可以做到"，但表面之下隱藏著恐慌：開(kāi)支越來(lái)越大，社會(huì)服務(wù)體系不堪重負(fù)，默克爾的民意支持率正在下滑，而極右暴力事件正在增多。

Could Ms Merkel still turn the situation around? If the German government gets lucky, the coming of winter will slow the flow of refugees, providing a breathing space to organise the reception of asylum seekers and to come up with new arrangements with transit countries, particularly Turkey. Regardless of the chancellor's personal fate and reputation, the refugee crisis marks a turning point.
默克爾還能扭轉(zhuǎn)局勢(shì)嗎？如果德國(guó)政府幸運(yùn)的話，冬天的到來(lái)將減緩難民流入，可以為安排收容尋求庇護(hù)者，并與難民過(guò)境國(guó)家（尤其是土耳其）一起制定新的安排提供喘息空間。姑且不論默克爾的個(gè)人命運(yùn)和聲譽(yù)，這場(chǎng)難民危機(jī)標(biāo)志著一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。

（中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)網(wǎng)英語(yǔ)點(diǎn)津 丁一）