Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will use his attendance at the Asia-Europe summit in Milan on Oct 16 and 17 as an opportunity to visit Germany and Italy. The ASEM summit is an important gathering of European and Asian leaders every two years to discuss global issues. It also provides a useful occasion for bilateral meetings. One of the important bilateral meetings for Premier Li in Milan will be a working dinner with outgoing European Union President Herman van Rompuy and Commission President José Manuel Barroso.
The Chinese Premier's visit takes place against slowing economic growth in Europe and China. While the worst phase of the eurozone crisis is over, there is still much to do to rekindle growth rates and tackle high unemployment. The European Commission estimates growth in the EU this year will barely reach 1 percent while youth unemployment in Spain and Greece is over 30 percent.
In these circumstances, the EU is looking to China to maintain its high growth rates and act as the driver for the global economy. Europe and China are each other's biggest trading partners so when one catches a cold it affects the other. European leaders are confident that Beijing knows what levers to adjust to continue China's remarkable growth. But they also know there will be no return to double digit growth. China has to tackle massive environmental problems, debt-ridden State-owned enterprises and local authorities, and root out corruption.
This will be a tall order, but as the Chinese economy slows there will be potential to increase cooperation with the EU. The EU has the know-how and technology, for example, to help China tackle its huge environmental problems. It also has useful experience in regional policy that may be helpful for China. Both sides need to work together for a successful outcome at the climate change conference in Paris next year.
Premier Li's meeting with van Rompuy and Barroso will be the last meeting with the current EU leaders. A new team is scheduled to take over in November - Donald Tusk as President of the European Council, Jean Claude Juncker as Commission President and Federica Mogherina as the High Representative for foreign and security policy. It will be a top priority to establish good contacts between China and the new EU leadership and proceed with the implementation of the 2020 Strategic Agenda. This vision document agreed earlier this year sets out areas in which Beijing and Brussels can work together in the next five years.
Next year will mark the 40th anniversary of EU-China relations and a host of events are planned to mark the occasion. These will include a special summit, several ministerial meetings, exhibitions, sporting and cultural events.
In the meantime negotiations continue for an important bilateral investment treaty. Premier Li is also keen on innovation, while the EU leaders will highlight the need for fair competition and the stability of financial markets.
The Milan dinner will also cover international issues, such as Iraq, Syria and Ukraine. Events in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region might cast a shadow over the meeting, but it seems the situation has calmed now.
In Italy, Li will meet with Prime Minister Matteo Renzi who has made a name for himself as an energetic promoter of reform. But he now needs to follow up his rhetoric with deeds. The Italian economy remains weak and Renzi will be looking to China for a boost in investment. China has the capital to invest in European infrastructure. It is already buying into nuclear power in the UK and ports in Greece. It has also established a 16+1 framework to boost investment with Eastern Europe.
In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel remains the country's and Europe's dominant politician. As the paymaster of the EU, she has imposed austerity on most EU member states whether they like it or not. Li will be looking to maintain and boost the excellent bilateral relations between China and Germany. Li will also speak at an important business summit in Hamburg where the main theme is improving economic relations between the EU and China.
In between Germany and Italy Premier Li will visit Russia for talks with President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Russia and the EU are at odds over Ukraine. Both will be seeking Li's support for their respective viewpoints.
In the absence of a second full EU-China summit this year because of the change in the EU's leadership, Li's dinner with van Rompuy and Barroso should provide a welcome boost to the bilateral relationship. |
中國(guó)總理李克強(qiáng)將借10月16到17號(hào)在米蘭參加亞歐峰會(huì)之機(jī)訪(fǎng)問(wèn)德國(guó)和意大利。亞歐峰會(huì)每?jī)赡昱e辦一屆,亞歐各國(guó)首腦將齊聚討論全球性問(wèn)題。這也為進(jìn)行雙邊會(huì)議提供了一個(gè)有利場(chǎng)合。李克強(qiáng)總理在米蘭的重要雙邊會(huì)議之一就是要和行將離職的歐洲理事會(huì)主席赫爾曼·范龍佩(Herman van Rompuy)以及歐盟委員會(huì)主席若澤·曼努埃爾·巴羅佐(José Manuel Barroso)共進(jìn)晚餐。
李克強(qiáng)總理此次訪(fǎng)問(wèn)主要是為了應(yīng)對(duì)中歐經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩的問(wèn)題。雖然已經(jīng)挺過(guò)了歐元區(qū)危機(jī)最壞的時(shí)候,但是重振經(jīng)濟(jì)和扭轉(zhuǎn)高失業(yè)率仍然任重道遠(yuǎn)。歐盟委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì)今年整個(gè)歐盟區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率只能勉強(qiáng)達(dá)到1%,而西班牙和希臘的青年失業(yè)率將超過(guò)30%。
在這種情況下,歐盟希望中國(guó)作為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的引擎能繼續(xù)保持高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率。歐盟和中國(guó)互為彼此最大的貿(mào)易伙伴,雙方利益休戚相關(guān)。歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人相信中國(guó)方面了解該采用何種手段讓中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)發(fā)展。但歐盟也很清楚中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率不會(huì)再回到兩位數(shù)了。中國(guó)需要處理嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境問(wèn)題以及國(guó)有企業(yè)和地方政府的赤字問(wèn)題,根除腐敗。
這將是一項(xiàng)艱巨的任務(wù),但在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩之際,中國(guó)和歐盟的合作將帶來(lái)新的機(jī)遇。歐盟有經(jīng)驗(yàn)和技術(shù)能幫助中國(guó)解決譬如環(huán)境惡化方面的問(wèn)題。歐盟區(qū)域政策的經(jīng)驗(yàn)也能幫到中國(guó)。雙邊需要在明年巴黎舉行的氣候變化大會(huì)上加強(qiáng)雙邊合作,促進(jìn)共同發(fā)展。
李克強(qiáng)總理會(huì)見(jiàn)范龍佩和巴羅索的會(huì)議被安排在會(huì)見(jiàn)歐盟領(lǐng)袖的最后階段。11月,新的團(tuán)隊(duì)將會(huì)接班——由唐納德·圖斯克(Donald Tusk)擔(dān)任歐洲理事會(huì)主席,簡(jiǎn)·克勞德·容克(Jean Claude Juncker)擔(dān)任歐盟委員會(huì)主席,費(fèi)德麗卡·莫格麗娜(Federica Mogherina)擔(dān)任外交和安全政策高級(jí)代表。新歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人將把繼續(xù)與中國(guó)發(fā)展良好關(guān)系以及實(shí)施2020戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)放在首要位置。這份今年早些時(shí)候達(dá)成的協(xié)議規(guī)劃出中歐未來(lái)五年合作的前景文檔。(雙方將把建立中國(guó)與歐盟新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)之間的良好關(guān)系以及繼續(xù)實(shí)施《中歐合作2020戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃》放在首要位置。這份今年早些時(shí)候達(dá)成的前景協(xié)議制定了北京和布魯塞爾在未來(lái)5年內(nèi)的合作領(lǐng)域。)
明年是中歐建交40周年,屆時(shí)將會(huì)舉行一系列活動(dòng)記錄這一歷史性的時(shí)刻,包括一次特殊峰會(huì),幾個(gè)部長(zhǎng)級(jí)會(huì)議、展覽,以及體育和文化交流活動(dòng)。
同時(shí)雙方將繼續(xù)就一項(xiàng)重大的雙邊投資協(xié)議展開(kāi)談判。李克強(qiáng)總理熱衷于創(chuàng)新,同時(shí)歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人則強(qiáng)調(diào)平等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和穩(wěn)定金融市場(chǎng)。
米蘭的晚宴上還會(huì)談及重大國(guó)際問(wèn)題,比如伊拉克、敘利亞和烏克蘭問(wèn)題。香港特別行政區(qū)的事件為晚宴蒙上了一層陰影,不過(guò)該事件現(xiàn)在似乎已經(jīng)平息了。
李克強(qiáng)總理將會(huì)在意大利會(huì)見(jiàn)總理馬泰奧·倫齊(Matteo Renzi),一個(gè)以精力充沛的革命者形象著稱(chēng)的人。但他需要將語(yǔ)言轉(zhuǎn)化成行動(dòng)。意大利經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然疲軟,倫齊希望中國(guó)的投資能成為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的助推器。中國(guó)有資本投資歐洲的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,中國(guó)已經(jīng)參股英國(guó)核電站項(xiàng)目,并收購(gòu)了希臘最大港口,此外還建立了16+1合作框架促進(jìn)對(duì)東歐的投資。
德國(guó)總理安吉拉·默克爾(Angela Merkel)仍是該國(guó)和整個(gè)歐洲最強(qiáng)有力的政客,(手握財(cái)政大權(quán)的)她可以不顧各國(guó)意見(jiàn),將緊縮政策強(qiáng)行施加給每個(gè)歐盟成員國(guó)。李克強(qiáng)總理此次訪(fǎng)問(wèn)將尋求保持中德雙邊良好合作的態(tài)勢(shì)。李克強(qiáng)總理還將在漢堡舉行的經(jīng)濟(jì)峰會(huì)上就促進(jìn)中歐經(jīng)濟(jì)合作發(fā)表重要講話(huà)。
在訪(fǎng)問(wèn)德國(guó)和意大利之間,李克強(qiáng)總理還將訪(fǎng)問(wèn)俄羅斯并會(huì)見(jiàn)俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉迪米爾·普京(Vladimir Putin)以及總理德米特里·梅德韋杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)。俄羅斯和歐盟在烏克蘭問(wèn)題上存在爭(zhēng)端,雙方持不同觀點(diǎn),但都尋求李克強(qiáng)總理的支持。
由于今年歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人變化,中歐峰會(huì)第二次將無(wú)法如期舉行,這樣李克強(qiáng)總理與范龍佩以及巴羅索的晚宴應(yīng)給雙邊關(guān)系起到重大促進(jìn)作用。
作者弗雷澤·卡梅倫(Fraser Cameron) 為智庫(kù)歐盟-亞洲中心(EU-Asia Centre )主管,本文刊登于10月9日出版的《中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)》。
(譯者 chuckbupt 編輯 丹妮)
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