The World Economic Forum on Thursday released its Global Risks 2014 report. "Taking a 10-year outlook, the report assesses 31 risks that are global in nature and have the potential to cause significant negative impact across entire countries and industries if they take place," is how the WEF describes the report in a statement accompanying its release. "The risks are grouped under five classifications — economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological — and measured in terms of their likelihood and potential impact," the statement says. The report canvasses the views of 700 experts from around the world. Ten of what the WEF calls the "global risks of highest concern" for 2014 are as follows: Fiscal crises in key economies "Fiscal crises feature as the top risk in this year's Global Risks report. Advanced economies remain in danger, while many emerging markets have seen credit growth in recent years, which could fuel financial crises. A fiscal crisis in any major economy could easily have cascading global impacts." Structurally high unemployment/underemployment "Unemployment appears second overall, as many people in both advanced and emerging economies struggle to find jobs. Young people are especially vulnerable – youth unemployment is as high as 50% in some countries and underemployment (with low-quality jobs) remains prevalent, especially in emerging and developing markets." Water crises "Environmental risks feature prominently on this year's list. Water crises, for instance, rank as the third highest concern, illustrating a continued and growing awareness of the global water crisis as a result of mismanagement and increased competition for already scarce water resources." Severe income disparity "Closely associated in terms of societal risk, income disparity is also among the most worrying issues. Concerns have been raised about the squeezing effect the financial crisis had on the middle classes in developed economies, while globalization has brought about a polarization of incomes in emerging and developing economies." Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation "Even as governments and corporations are called upon to speed up greenhouse gas reduction, it is clear that the race is on not only to mitigate climate change but also to adapt. Failure to adapt has the biggest effect on the most vulnerable, especially those in least developed countries." Greater incidence of extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, fires) "Climate change is the key driver of uncertain and changing weather patterns, causing an increased frequency of extreme weather events such as floods and droughts. The Global Risks 2014 report draws attention to the combined implications of these environmental risks on key development and security issues, such as food security and political and social instability, ranked 8th and 10th respectively." Global governance failure "The risk of global governance failure, which lies at the heart of the risk map, was viewed by respondents as one of the risks that is most connected to others. Weak or inadequate global institutions, agreements or networks, combined with competing national and political interests, impede attempts to cooperate on addressing global risks." Food crises "One of the top societal risks in the report, food crises occur when access to appropriate quantities and quality of food and nutrition becomes inadequate or unreliable. Food crises are strongly linked to the risk of climate change and related factors." Failure of a major financial mechanism/institution "Over five years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the failure of a major financial mechanism or institution also features among the risks that respondents are most concerned about, as uncertainty about the quality of many banks' assets remains." Profound political and social instability "At number 10 is the risk that one or more systemically critical countries will experience significant erosion of trust and mutual obligations between states and citizens. This could lead to state collapse, internal violence, regional or global instability and, potentially, military conflict." |
世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇在周四發(fā)布了《2014全球危機(jī)報(bào)告》。 “該報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)了在10年內(nèi)可能發(fā)生的31個(gè)危機(jī),它們的發(fā)生將對(duì)全球的城市及工業(yè)產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重的負(fù)面影響?!痹诎l(fā)布該報(bào)告時(shí)WEF(世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇)解釋道。 報(bào)告說:“這些危機(jī)被分為5大類,分別是經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境、地緣政治、社會(huì)以及科技,對(duì)評(píng)估標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是它們發(fā)生的可能性與可能帶來的影響?!?/p> 該報(bào)告征求了全球700多位專家的意見,“全球最關(guān)注的危機(jī)”榜單前十位如下所示: 主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的財(cái)政危機(jī) 在本年度的全球危機(jī)報(bào)告中,財(cái)政危機(jī)位列第一。發(fā)達(dá)國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)依舊危險(xiǎn),同時(shí)新興市場(chǎng)上的信用在近年急速增長,這些都可能導(dǎo)致財(cái)政危機(jī)。主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的財(cái)政危機(jī)將會(huì)輕而易舉地影響到全球經(jīng)濟(jì)。 高結(jié)構(gòu)性失業(yè)率/不良就業(yè) 失業(yè)排在榜上的第二位,無論是在發(fā)達(dá)國家還是新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體中,許多人都在艱難地尋找著工作。年輕人最為受傷——在部分城市,年輕人的失業(yè)率高達(dá)50%。就業(yè)不理想(低質(zhì)量就業(yè))是非常普遍的,尤其是在發(fā)展中國家。 水源危機(jī) 在今年危機(jī)排行榜上,環(huán)境危機(jī)尤為顯著。當(dāng)前,水源危機(jī)已經(jīng)排在了第三位,這說明,原本就已經(jīng)供不應(yīng)求的水資源,在不當(dāng)?shù)?、日益激烈的?jìng)爭(zhēng)之后,人們開始對(duì)全球水源危機(jī)的意識(shí)在不斷加強(qiáng)。 收入兩極化 由于其與社會(huì)危機(jī)的密切關(guān)系,收入兩極化也成為了最令人擔(dān)憂的事情。在發(fā)展中國家,財(cái)政危機(jī)對(duì)中產(chǎn)階級(jí)產(chǎn)生的擠壓效應(yīng)引發(fā)了人們更深的擔(dān)憂,并且,全球化使得新興的發(fā)展中國家出現(xiàn)了收入兩極化。 氣候變化抑制失敗 政府和企業(yè)被呼吁要求加速推進(jìn)減少溫室氣體排放進(jìn)程,但很明顯的是減緩氣候變化是不夠的,我們需要去改變這種變化。如果我們沒能改變它,后果將是極其嚴(yán)重的,尤其是對(duì)于那些脆弱的發(fā)展中國家而言。 極端天氣頻發(fā)(如:洪水、暴風(fēng)和火災(zāi)等) 氣候變化將主導(dǎo)具有不確定性、不斷變化的天氣模式,這將引起極端天氣頻繁發(fā)生,如:洪水和干旱?!?014全球危機(jī)報(bào)告》中將這些環(huán)境因素與其可能影響到的關(guān)鍵性發(fā)展與安全問題結(jié)合在一起,如食品安全、政治與社會(huì)的穩(wěn)定,它們分別列于榜單上的第8位和第10位。 世界秩序紊亂 全球秩序的紊亂被認(rèn)為是整份危機(jī)榜單的核心,它可能是其他危機(jī)引發(fā)的連鎖反應(yīng),同時(shí)也與其他危機(jī)緊密相關(guān)。不稱職的全球性機(jī)構(gòu)、與國家政治利益息息相關(guān)的條約協(xié)議都將阻擋各國通力合作對(duì)應(yīng)全球危機(jī)的腳步。 糧食危機(jī) 在該報(bào)告中,糧食危機(jī)成為第一大社會(huì)問題,當(dāng)出現(xiàn)無法獲得足夠食物的糧食危機(jī)時(shí),政府將被認(rèn)為是不稱職并且不可信的。糧食危機(jī)與氣候變化和其他一些相關(guān)因素聯(lián)系非常緊密。 主要金融機(jī)構(gòu)破產(chǎn) 雷曼兄弟銀行破產(chǎn)五年后的今天,主要金融機(jī)構(gòu)的破產(chǎn)成為全球危機(jī)之一,它帶來的后果也令人非常擔(dān)憂,同樣令人擔(dān)憂的還有對(duì)銀行當(dāng)前所有資產(chǎn)安全等級(jí)的不確定。 深層次的政治社會(huì)危機(jī) 第10位的危機(jī)是人們與政府相互間的信任和義務(wù)責(zé)任的缺失,它很可能發(fā)生在大城市,并且不止一個(gè)。這將導(dǎo)致政府崩潰、內(nèi)部暴力武裝、區(qū)域性或全球性的不穩(wěn)定,甚至將引發(fā)武裝戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。 (譯者 winni0713 編輯 丹妮) |