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地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)建設(shè)
Quake warning system in the works

[ 2013-04-27 09:52]     字號(hào) [] [] []  
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地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)建設(shè)

Students lower their heads during a silent tribute to the victims of Lushan April 20 earthquake, in Lushan Middle School, Ya'an city, Southwest China's Sichuan province on April 27, 2013. [Photo/Xinhua]

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After experiencing heavy casualties and extensive damage in powerful earthquakes since 2008, China is developing a way to give at least a few extra seconds' warning for those near quake epicenters.

The system, called the National Earthquake Early Warning and Intensity Quick Reporting System, which will have an estimated cost of about 2 billion yuan ($324 million), is expected to be built before 2017 by the China Earthquake Administration — if the National Development and Reform Commission approves the project this year, the administration said.

The administration said the system will detect earthquake-related shaking that are in the form of P-waves, which move rapidly but are harmless, and which arrive before the more-powerful and destructive shear waves, or S-waves.

"As earthquakes cannot be predicted, getting people to safety quickly before the destructive waves arrive can largely decrease casualties," Li Shanyou, deputy director of the Institute of Engineering Mechanics under the China Earthquake Administration, told China Daily.

He added that the few seconds of warning can also help a train driver slow down to avoid possible derailment, warn a doctor to stop a surgery, give a shutdown signal to chemical factories, prevent potential leaks and fires, and alert officials at critical projects, such as nuclear plants.

Experts estimate that casualties could be reduced by 14 percent with a three-second advance warning of an earthquake, and 39 percent with a 10-second warning.

The program includes the construction of more than 5,000 quake-monitoring stations across the country, guaranteeing every city above county level will have at least one. The system will be in four major areas — northern China, the north-south seismic belt, coastal regions of southeastern China, and northwestern Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region — with a station every 25 km.

Li said if quake stations are about 30 km apart, the early-warning system can issue warning information about 10 seconds after a quake happens below ground.

Detecting P-waves with the system can provide a few precious seconds to people before the powerful S-waves arrive.

"The S-waves generally move at a speed of 3.5 km per second, which means before the warning is issued, S-waves have already spread in a radius of 35 km from the epicenter," he said, adding that the area within the 35-km radius of the epicenter, which is called the "blind area", cannot be warned.

Lushan county in the Ya'an earthquake in Sichuan province was in the blind area, Li said.

The early warning cannot play a role in small quakes, but if it is large with a huge affected area, the system will dramatically reduce damage and lead to fewer deaths, he said.

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4月20日,四川省雅安市蘆山縣發(fā)生7.0級(jí)地震,截至周四三已造成196人遇難;2010年4月14日,青海省玉樹(shù)縣發(fā)生7.1級(jí)地震,2,698人遇難;2008年5月12日,四川汶川發(fā)生8.0級(jí)強(qiáng)震,遇難和失蹤人數(shù)達(dá)8.7萬(wàn)人。

面對(duì)如此頻繁且震級(jí)較高的地震,建立“國(guó)家地震烈度速報(bào)與預(yù)警工程”已迫在眉睫。日前中國(guó)地震局工程力學(xué)研究所副所長(zhǎng)李山有在接受《中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)》專訪時(shí)對(duì)該工程進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的介紹。

“國(guó)家地震烈度速報(bào)與預(yù)警工程”是由覆蓋全國(guó)的5000余個(gè)地震臺(tái)站組成,工程完成后,不僅全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)每個(gè)縣級(jí)以上城市都將布設(shè)1個(gè)或1個(gè)以上的地震臺(tái)站,平均臺(tái)站間距為40公里左右;而且華北地區(qū)、南北地震帶、東南沿海地區(qū)及新疆西北部地區(qū)等四個(gè)區(qū)域?qū)⒔M成平均臺(tái)站間距為25公里左右的地震觀測(cè)臺(tái)網(wǎng),具備對(duì)破壞性地震的預(yù)警能力。

據(jù)悉該工程已于2012年12月正式進(jìn)入國(guó)家發(fā)改委立項(xiàng)評(píng)估階段,計(jì)劃投入約20億元,建設(shè)時(shí)間為5年。

李山有副所長(zhǎng)還介紹了該工程的預(yù)警原理是利用地震產(chǎn)生的縱波(縱波傳播速度快,能量小,一般不會(huì)造成破壞)和橫波(橫波速度相對(duì)較慢,但能量大,是造成地震破壞的主要原因)的傳播時(shí)間差,在自動(dòng)監(jiān)測(cè)到縱波后快速估算地震參數(shù),搶在橫波傳到某地前發(fā)出警報(bào)信息。這樣可以為離開(kāi)地震震中一定距離(預(yù)警盲區(qū))的外圍區(qū)域提供數(shù)秒至數(shù)十秒的預(yù)警時(shí)間。

公眾利用這短暫但寶貴的時(shí)間可以因地制宜地采取避震或逃生措施;企業(yè)利用這短暫的時(shí)間可以提早采取應(yīng)急處置措施,例如行駛中的高速列車(chē)可制動(dòng)減速避免出軌翻車(chē),輸油氣管線可關(guān)閉運(yùn)行避免油氣泄露引起污染或火災(zāi),醫(yī)院可中止精密手術(shù)(如眼科)避免操作事故,化工企業(yè)可緊急終止可能產(chǎn)生次生災(zāi)害操作等,核電廠等重大工程可提前進(jìn)入應(yīng)急狀態(tài)避免次生災(zāi)害。

根據(jù)《西北地震學(xué)報(bào)》的報(bào)道統(tǒng)計(jì),3秒的地震預(yù)警時(shí)間,傷亡減少率將達(dá)到14%;10秒,則可減少傷亡39%;20秒,可減少傷亡63%。

不過(guò)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)也有其自身的局限性。

李山有說(shuō)如果地震臺(tái)站的間距為30公里,預(yù)警系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)等待和處理的時(shí)間大約為10秒,而破壞性地震橫波以大約每秒3.5公里向外傳播,10秒鐘將覆蓋半徑為35公里的區(qū)域,而這個(gè)區(qū)域無(wú)法提供預(yù)警,稱作預(yù)警盲區(qū)。

例如此次雅安地震,位于震中的蘆山縣就是預(yù)警盲區(qū)。

如果地震的震級(jí)不是很大,可能產(chǎn)生破壞的范圍就處于盲區(qū)之內(nèi),此時(shí)再向預(yù)警盲區(qū)外的區(qū)域發(fā)布預(yù)警信息沒(méi)有減災(zāi)意義。

但是,李山有介紹對(duì)于大地震來(lái)說(shuō),其破壞范圍可能很大(如汶川地震有300多公里),可預(yù)警的潛在地震破壞區(qū)域也很大,距離震中越遠(yuǎn),預(yù)警時(shí)間越長(zhǎng),減災(zāi)效果就越明顯。

除了為地震外圍區(qū)域提供預(yù)警,地震烈度速報(bào)與預(yù)警工程可以在震后數(shù)分鐘后給出地震影響的程度和分布,為政府部門(mén)災(zāi)情判斷、應(yīng)急決策和救援力量調(diào)配等提供依據(jù),為生命線工程的震后搶險(xiǎn)恢復(fù)提供參考。

(中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)記者 王茜 本文為編譯,原文刊登于4月27日版《中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)》)

 
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