China sent its strongest signal yet that its days of chasing breakneck economic growth are over, promising to wage a "war" on pollution and reduce the pace of investment to the slowest in a decade as it pursues more sustainable expansion. In a State of the Union style address to an annual parliament meeting that began on Wednesday, Premier Li Keqiang said China aimed to expand its economy by 7.5 percent this year, the highest level among the world's major economies, but stressed that this level of growth would not get in the way of reforms. In carefully crafted language that suggested Beijing had thought hard about leaving the forecast unchanged from last year, Li said the world's second-largest economy will pursue reforms stretching from the environment to the financial sector, even as it generates sufficient growth to support incomes and employment. After 30 years of red-hot double-digit growth that has lifted millions out of poverty but also polluted the country's air and water and saddled the country with ominous debt levels, China is trying to change tack and rebalance its economy. "Reform is the top priority for the government," Li told around 3,000 hand-picked delegates in his first parliamentary address in a cavernous meeting hall in central Beijing. "We must have the mettle to fight on and break mental shackles to deepen reforms on all fronts." Idle factories will be shut, private investment will be encouraged, and work on a new environmental protection tax will be speeded up to create a greener and more balanced economy powered by consumption rather than investment, Li said. To aid the transformation, China's economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, told parliament that the government will target 17.5 percent growth in fixed-asset investment this year, the slowest in 12 years. Investment is the largest driver of China's economy and accounted for over half of last year's 7.7 percent growth by expanding 19.6 percent, exceeding an 18 percent target. Some analysts welcomed the plans for steady economic growth as a sign that the giant Chinese growth engine will stay on an even keel despite its wobbly start for the year. Regional currency markets were slightly firmer as the news emerged, since there had been concerns Beijing would lower the target toward 7 percent, and investors often over-react to even the smallest of changes in China's outlook. "While some may view this "target" approach as being past its use-by date, financial markets remain rather sensitive to it as China remains a large unknown," said Annette Beacher, head of Asia-Pacific Research at TD Securities in Singapore. "Given that GDP growth is expected to be 7.5 percent for "longer", we see this target as supportive for the Asian region, trade, and for commodity currencies more generally." But other analysts worried that the government's refusal to tolerate slower economic growth was a sign China may not be as bold in its reforms as some had hoped. "By keeping the target at about 7.5 percent, it's a sign that maybe they are not going to tackle credit growth as quickly as we thought they might," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist at Capital Economics in Singapore. NATURE'S RED-LIGHT WARNING At a plenum meeting of the ruling Communist Party last November, China announced ambitious reforms that signaled the shift from investment- and export-fuelled growth towards a slower, more balanced and sustained expansion. Wednesday's announcements signal that it is well on track, but moving cautiously. Li, China's first premier with an economics doctorate, said the government would maintain an inflation target of around 3.5 percent for 2014, increase broad M2 money supply by 13 percent, and keep fiscal deficit at 2.1 percent of GDP. All were widely expected. He repeated the government's standard rhetoric on financial reforms, saying that authorities' grip on the yuan will be gradually relaxed and deposits eventually insured, but did not provide a time line. On the environment, however, Li did not mince his words. "Smog is affecting large parts of China and environmental pollution has become a major problem, which is nature's red-light warning against the model of inefficient and blind development," Li said in his address that lasted a little over 100 minutes, in what state media said was the shortest ever. He said the battle against pollution will be waged via reforms in energy pricing to boost non-fossil fuel power and cutting capacity in the steel and cement sectors which are the sources of much air pollution. But plans to outdated steel capacity this year comprise less than 2.5 percent of total capacity and will be outstripped by new capacity currently under construction, although this will be more modern and less polluting. The targeted cement closures also comprise less than 2 percent of last year's total production. Many steel and cement factories have also been shutting down for economic reasons, putting China's willingness to go the extra mile on pollution into question. Analysts have warned in the past that China will loathe to rock the boat when it comes to reforms for fear of fuelling job losses and undermining social stability. As such, they say difficult changes such as government downsizing or closures of debt-laden factories in sectors gripped by overcapacity are likely to take a back seat. During the parliament meeting, key government ministries and the central bank will hold a series of press briefings to cover a wide range of economic and social issues. Li is scheduled to hold a news conference at the end of the parliament meeting on March 13. |
中國政府發(fā)出強烈的信號,表示不再追逐經(jīng)濟的高速增長,承諾向污染“宣戰(zhàn)”,將投資放緩至近十年最慢速度,爭取實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)增長。 在周三召開的年度政府會議中,李克強總理的政府工作報告指出,今年中國經(jīng)濟增長目標在7.5%左右,達世界主要經(jīng)濟體中最高水平,但強調(diào)這一水平將不會阻礙改革。 李克強總理字斟句酌地闡明了北京在仔細思考后將預(yù)測維持在與去年的同等水平上,世界第二大經(jīng)濟體力求將改革從環(huán)境拓展到金融領(lǐng)域,即使它產(chǎn)生足以支持收入與就業(yè)的增長。 30年來,火熱的兩位數(shù)增長讓無數(shù)人擺脫貧困,但同時也污染了空氣與水,并且給中國縛上沉重的債務(wù)負擔(dān)。中國正試圖改弦易轍,重新平衡自身經(jīng)濟。 “改革是政府的第一要務(wù)”,李克強在北京中央的大會堂在其任職后第一個議會演講中對近3000名精挑細選出的代表如是說。 “我們必須有勇氣繼續(xù)戰(zhàn)斗,打破思想桎梏,全面深化改革。” 關(guān)閉閑置工廠,鼓勵私人投資,加速籌劃新的環(huán)境保護稅,以此來創(chuàng)造一個更綠色更平衡的消費型經(jīng)濟,而不是投資導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟,李克強說道。 中國的經(jīng)濟策劃師,國家發(fā)展與改革委員會說,為輔助轉(zhuǎn)型,政府將固定資產(chǎn)投資增長目標定為12年中的最低值,17.5%。 投資是中國經(jīng)濟的最大驅(qū)動。去年投資增長率為19.6%,超過了既定的目標18%,占據(jù)了整體經(jīng)濟增長7.7%的一大半。 一些分析家支持經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定增長的計劃,認為這表明了中國經(jīng)濟增長的巨大引擎雖然一開始搖晃,但可以保持一帆風(fēng)順。 區(qū)域貨幣市場在出新聞之后稍微穩(wěn)定了些,因為有人曾擔(dān)憂北京會將目標向7%靠攏,投資者總是對中國前景中最微小的變化反應(yīng)過度。 Annette Beacher, 新加坡道明證券亞太研究部主管說:“雖然有人認為這一“目標”已經(jīng)過了保質(zhì)期,金融市場對中國這一巨大的未知數(shù)仍十分敏感?!?/font> “在GDP預(yù)期增長率“長期”為7.5%的條件下,我們認為這一目標有利于亞洲區(qū)域,貿(mào)易,廣泛一點來說,商品貨幣?!?/font> 但是其他分析師擔(dān)心政府不愿忍受更低的經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)示著中國在改革上可能不會像有些人希望地那樣大膽。 "將目標定在7.5%預(yù)示著,他們也許不會像我們預(yù)期的那樣快速解決信貸增長問題。”Julian Evans-Pritchard,一位新加坡資本經(jīng)濟學(xué)家如是說。 自然的紅色預(yù)警 去年十一月份的共產(chǎn)黨全體會議宣布了雄心勃勃的改革計劃,預(yù)示著由投資和出口拉動型經(jīng)濟增長向更緩慢,更穩(wěn)定的可持續(xù)型經(jīng)濟增長的轉(zhuǎn)變。 周三的宣言表示這一計劃運行地穩(wěn)定而謹慎。 李克強,中國首位持經(jīng)濟學(xué)博士學(xué)位的總理,聲明政府將會維持通貨膨脹率在3.5%左右,M2貨幣供應(yīng)量增長率在12%左右,將財政赤字控制在GDP的2.1%內(nèi)。這些都在普遍預(yù)期中。 他重申了政府在金融改革上的標準論調(diào),表示政府對人民幣的管控將會放松,存款最終將得到保障,但未給出明確的時間。 盡管如此,在環(huán)境問題上,李克強不再含糊其辭。 李克強的報告持續(xù)了100多分鐘,國內(nèi)媒體稱其為史上最短。報告說道:“霧霾影響了中國的大部分地區(qū),環(huán)境污染成為了重大問題,這是自然針對低效盲目發(fā)展給出的紅色預(yù)警”。 他說對抗污染的戰(zhàn)役將會通過能源價格改革敲響,要推動非礦物燃料,減少鋼鐵和水泥行業(yè)的產(chǎn)能,因為這些都是空氣污染的主要來源。 今年,淘汰了的鋼鐵產(chǎn)能只占到了總產(chǎn)能的不到2.5%,而且將會被正在建造的新產(chǎn)能所超越,盡管新產(chǎn)能更現(xiàn)代,更環(huán)保。 按計劃關(guān)閉的水泥廠也只占到了去年總產(chǎn)量的不到2%。許多鋼鐵廠,水泥廠也因經(jīng)濟原因而倒閉,中國是否愿為治理污染而投入成為了疑問。 分析師過去就提醒過,中國在改革中會不愿打破現(xiàn)狀,因為擔(dān)心改變會刺激失業(yè),危害社會穩(wěn)定。他們認為諸如縮小政府規(guī)模,關(guān)閉行業(yè)中負債累累的產(chǎn)能過剩的工廠之類的艱難改變,很有可能會退居二線。 在會議期間,主要政府部門和中央銀行將會召開一些列新聞發(fā)布會,涉及到許多經(jīng)濟與社會議題。 在兩會結(jié)束后,李克強將會主持定于3月13日舉行的記者招待會。 (譯者:emily92 編輯:齊磊) |