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金融時(shí)報(bào):兩會(huì)熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題大盤點(diǎn)
What to watch for at the annual session of China’s parliament

[ 2014-03-04 09:40] 來(lái)源:中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)網(wǎng)     字號(hào) [] [] []  
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Each year in early March, thousands of delegates to?China’s official lawmaking and top political advisory bodies gather in Beijing to rubber-stamp laws and policies decided by the country’s ruling Communist party.

And every year there is discussion about whether or not these gatherings of China’s National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Congress remain just a political pageant, or if the party is allowing more debate and consultation to creep into the process of “democracy with Chinese characteristics”.

The opening of the NPC in the morning on March 5 will see Premier Li read out his first government work report since he took office a year ago. The three-hour speech, in front of thousands of delegates and media in the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square, is said to be so gruelling that ageing Premiers in the past have had to be trained for hours to stand and read aloud without stopping to drink or take breaks.

The government’s 2014 annual budget will also be released in the morning on March 5.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, will give a press conference that will be closely watched for hints about China’s plans for interest rate liberalisation and capital account opening.

On March 13 the NPC will hold its closing ceremony and then Premier Li will greet the public and the world for the premier’s annual press conference. This highly scripted event provides the key talking points that the government wants to convey to the nation and the outside world.

This year’s sessions will be watched especially closely as they are the first to be held since President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang formally took the reins of government at last year’s meetings. While the unveiling of any radical new policy agenda is unlikely, the nation will be watching for progress on the key reforms outlined by the Party during two important meetings late last year.

Growth targets:?Of particular interest will be the figures Beijing announces as its growth targets for 2014. Most analysts expect the government to leave these unchanged from last year by announcing a growth target of 7.5 per cent, an inflation target of less than 3.5 per cent and?M2 money supply?growth of 13 per cent.

Any changes to these figures, which should be announced at the opening of the NPC on March 5, could provide a useful insight into how robust the leadership thinks the economy will be this year and how willing they are to accept lower rates of growth as they try to reform the country’s economic model.

Real estate policy:?After years of ineffectual attempts to rein in overheated growth in the country’s booming property markets, there are some signs that China’s new leaders are preparing their own policies to bring down prices in residential markets, a perennial source of discontent among the country’s growing urban population.

The annual government report from the premier is often used to announce such policies.

Ethnic policies:?Vicious knife attacks?carried out by ethnic separatists from the rebellious Chinese region of Xinjiang on Saturday night left 29 innocent bystanders dead and 140 more injured. The attacks have thrown a spotlight on China’s repressive policies towards ethnic minorities and highlighted the simmering discontent among increasingly radicalised populations in the vast western stretches of the country.

The most likely response at the forthcoming political meetings will be expressions of resolve to “strike hard” and retaliate with “iron resolve” but look for any subtle change in wording in references to ethnic policy or any suggestion that China’s own policies may be responsible for the rise in violent separatist attacks.

State-owned companies reform:?The government has said it wants to open up the state-owned sector to greater investment from private companies, but so far most moves in this direction appear to have been largely symbolic. Investors at home and abroad will be looking for signs of more serious commitment to reductions in state ownership in key areas of the country including energy, telecoms, transport and finance.

Pollution:?Continued?shocking levels of pollution?across the country are expected to be high on the agenda at the meetings, especially after Beijing has just emerged from nearly two weeks of thick choking smog that prompted rare expressions of anger in China’s own state media.

The skies over Beijing traditionally clear for the opening of the political meetings as the party takes cars off the road, shuts down factories and uses artificial rain to make sure that nothing spoils the picture of a grand, harmonious and efficient governing structure. But even if the delegates themselves probably will not have to breathe the usually poisonous air, government plans to deal with the issue are still expected to be high on the agenda.

Foreign relations:?Rising tension with Japan is likely to get at least a mention during the political sessions and Chinese warnings of heightened “Japanese militarism” could well be used to justify expected double-digit increases in China’s military budget.

Foreign policy analysts and governments throughout the Pacific will be watching to see if Beijing tones down or ramps up the rhetoric directed at Tokyo and also its?neighbours bordering the disputed South China Sea.

Local government debt:?The huge burden of debt built up by local governments across the country will be addressed at the meetings and particularly in Premier Li’s work report and in the annual budget. Local governments are likely to be given the go-ahead to issue more municipal bonds to allow them to better balance their books and reduce their reliance on borrowing from China’s state-owned banks.

Shadow banking:?The rise of China’s huge, shadowy and largely unregulated alternative financial sector?is a source of great concern to China’s leaders and to global investors alike, and the topic is likely to be addressed during the two meetings. New regulations and perhaps the assigning of responsibility for regulating the issue could both emerge during the 10 days of political jawboning.

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每年的三月上旬,全國(guó)兩會(huì)都會(huì)在北京召開(kāi),數(shù)千名代表齊聚一堂共商國(guó)事,制定政策。

每年,社會(huì)上都流傳著這樣兩種聲音:兩會(huì)的召開(kāi)僅僅就是一場(chǎng)政治聚會(huì);兩會(huì)的召開(kāi)是社會(huì)主義民主政治的重要體現(xiàn),執(zhí)政黨以此聽(tīng)取廣大代表意見(jiàn)推進(jìn)民主進(jìn)程。


今年的人民代表大會(huì)備受關(guān)注,因?yàn)檫@是習(xí)近平主席和李克強(qiáng)總理自去年上任以來(lái)第一次代表大會(huì)。盡管我們無(wú)法具體了解所有新的基本政策規(guī)劃,我們卻能夠看到自去年以來(lái)國(guó)家在大項(xiàng)重點(diǎn)改革中取得的進(jìn)步。


3月5日上午,全國(guó)人民代表大會(huì)將在人民大會(huì)堂召開(kāi)。會(huì)上,李克強(qiáng)總理將宣讀2013年度政府工作報(bào)告,這是他任期第一年的政府工作總結(jié)。在代表和媒體記者面前做3小時(shí)的報(bào)告是一件相當(dāng)煎熬的事情,以往,年邁的總理不得不為此提前訓(xùn)練,鍛煉長(zhǎng)時(shí)間站立和做報(bào)告中不喝水休息的能力。


同時(shí),當(dāng)天早上還將公布2014年度政府財(cái)政預(yù)算。中國(guó)人民銀行行長(zhǎng)周小川將召開(kāi)記者發(fā)布會(huì)答記者問(wèn),解答關(guān)于利率市場(chǎng)化和資本賬戶開(kāi)放的問(wèn)題。


全國(guó)人大將于3月13日閉幕。屆時(shí),李克強(qiáng)總理將召開(kāi)新聞發(fā)布會(huì),會(huì)見(jiàn)國(guó)內(nèi)外媒體代表,解讀會(huì)議關(guān)鍵點(diǎn),向世界傳達(dá)中國(guó)聲音。


經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)

人們最關(guān)注的問(wèn)題就是2014年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)。多數(shù)專家分析今年的目標(biāo)將于上一年度相同,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)7.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn),通脹指數(shù)控制在3.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)以下,M2貨幣供應(yīng)量增長(zhǎng)13個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。在大會(huì)開(kāi)幕當(dāng)天,上述數(shù)據(jù)是否發(fā)生改變將反映國(guó)家對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的信心是否充足,是否愿意全面推進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型,接受較低的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。


房地產(chǎn)政策

每年的政府工作報(bào)告中都會(huì)提及與房地產(chǎn)有關(guān)的政策。盡管經(jīng)過(guò)多方調(diào)控,中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格依舊持續(xù)走高。有跡象表明,中國(guó)新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)集體將制定政策,降低居民住宅價(jià)格,消解長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)城市居民的不滿。


民族政策


3月1日晚,昆明發(fā)生持刀砍人惡性事件,目前事件造成29人死亡,140余人受傷,初步判定事件由新疆民族分裂勢(shì)力策劃。這場(chǎng)襲擊引發(fā)人們對(duì)于中國(guó)少數(shù)民族政策的關(guān)注,同時(shí)突出表現(xiàn)了中國(guó)西部地區(qū)激進(jìn)分子人數(shù)不斷增長(zhǎng),不滿情緒不斷積聚。在即將召開(kāi)的會(huì)議上,代表意見(jiàn)將傾向“嚴(yán)厲打擊”,同時(shí)代表們也會(huì)對(duì)民族政策進(jìn)行修訂,及時(shí)應(yīng)對(duì)已經(jīng)暴露的問(wèn)題。


國(guó)有企業(yè)改革


政府希望開(kāi)放國(guó)有企業(yè),吸引更多民間資本,可惜目前大部分舉措未發(fā)揮實(shí)質(zhì)性作用。與此同時(shí),海內(nèi)外投資商希望看到在能源、通信、交通和金融等重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域出臺(tái)更多優(yōu)惠政策。


環(huán)境污染


環(huán)境污染是此次會(huì)議重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的問(wèn)題之一,特別是本次會(huì)議召開(kāi)前兩周,北京剛剛歷經(jīng)了持續(xù)霧霾天氣。據(jù)國(guó)內(nèi)媒體報(bào)道,霧霾天讓許多人對(duì)現(xiàn)階段環(huán)境水平表示不滿。會(huì)議召開(kāi)期間,由于車輛限制、工廠暫時(shí)停工和使用人工降雨,藍(lán)天白云交相輝映,確保整個(gè)會(huì)議不受環(huán)境污染的影響。然而,即便空氣質(zhì)量?jī)?yōu)化,代表們感受不到污染,積極謀劃解決應(yīng)對(duì)環(huán)境問(wèn)題的方案依舊是本次會(huì)議的重點(diǎn)。


外交政策


兩會(huì)中一定會(huì)涉及中日兩國(guó)的緊張局勢(shì),為應(yīng)對(duì)日本軍國(guó)主義,中國(guó)軍費(fèi)開(kāi)支呈兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)十分合理。外交政策專家和太平洋國(guó)家將密切關(guān)注中國(guó)如何應(yīng)對(duì)與日本等鄰國(guó)發(fā)生的領(lǐng)土爭(zhēng)端問(wèn)題,是采取強(qiáng)硬政策還是溫和政策?


地方政府債務(wù)


會(huì)上會(huì)報(bào)告地方政府債務(wù)情況,這一數(shù)據(jù)在政府工作報(bào)告和財(cái)政預(yù)算中都將涉及。地方政府很可能繼續(xù)發(fā)行市政債券來(lái)平衡開(kāi)支,減少對(duì)國(guó)有銀行的依賴。


影子銀行系統(tǒng)


中國(guó)政府和全球投資者十分關(guān)注中國(guó)日益龐大的缺乏監(jiān)管的非銀行金融機(jī)構(gòu),這也是此次兩會(huì)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)之一。新政策以及管理機(jī)構(gòu)也許會(huì)在接下來(lái)的十天中誕生。
(譯者:吳溦 編輯:齊磊)

 

 
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