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暢想十年后的中國(guó)

What will China be like in 10 years?

中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)網(wǎng) 2014-03-07 09:37

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暢想十年后的中國(guó)

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"We interrupt live coverage of the Mars mission launch from Dongfeng to go to Beijing for the Oscars ceremony. As viewers are no doubt aware, this is the first time the award ceremony has been held outside the US. Nominated for best films for 2024, both sequels to the 2014 films, were American Bustle and Newton's Law. But the award-winning film for 2024 is Dalian, a story based around an oil executive and his family. It claims to put the oil into romantic turmoil. Also an Oscar first this year is that robots, instead of humans, have been nominated best actor and actress. Three of the five nominated robots, and two supporting robots, were made in China. Film formats have changed from 10 years ago and have lost the plot, literally, as viewers can select their own endings. The Oscars have taken this into account, and also for the first time, are allowing viewers to select their favorites."

Not entirely beyond the realms of plausibility 10 years from now. There is little future in prediction, except for chefs making, and waiters serving, large doses of humble pie. But at the risk of indigestion, and of attracting a waiter's attention, 2024 could have some of the following ingredients.

We won't have cash. Wallets and purses will be quaint reminders of the past that we can show bemused children. No need for notes and coins, as a bank's logo says: "Cash? It's a spent force".

All financial transactions will be done through smartphones, apps and embedded microchips in our wrists. No queueing to pay at tills. We pick, we go, we get scanned, money deducted.

Meanwhile back on the ranch, farms have also undergone profound change. Most of the megacities in China are self-sustaining with farms now located vertically floor on floor. Our food is grown in skyscrapers, energized by solar and wind power.

Life expectancy has soared and reaching 100, with full faculties, is a realistic goal. Cycling has witnessed a resurgence and China will establish the world's first fully green city, with no fossil fuel used for transport or heating and only bikes allowed on the road. Some cities are considering banning all vehicles, except for essential public services.

The economy is the world's biggest, but that was expected 10 years ago. What was not expected was the massive change in education. A new international test for 18 and 19-year-olds has been agreed by the world's leading universities, of which three of the top eight are in China. The new test, mandatory for those going to university, asks questions on a global curriculum based on food, language, computing, math and the IHSK. This is the international version of the HSK, a language exam for foreigners in China, and 15 million students will sit it across the globe in 2024.

Passing IHSK grade 4 is a prerequisite for most jobs, outside of China. Global employers demand that their workers know the language of their main customers. The top selling item of 2024? An earpiece that provides simultaneous language translation (IHSK students are not allowed to wear one for their test).

An estimated 921 million people, or 65 percent of China's population, will live in cities in 2024, which is about 2.5 times the size of the US population.

Driver-less cars are nothing new, but what is really grabbing the public's imagination are transport drones, that can accommodate up to 20 passengers, and fly in sky corridors at two-minute intervals. The initial corridor was built between Beijing and Shanghai.

In economic affairs, currency parity parties are being organized in Washington and Beijing as the WTO supported China's claim that the US was guilty of currency manipulation. The dollar has fallen 28 percent in 12 months.

Not all the changes will be on Earth. About 10,000 people have already gone into near orbit as space tourists, and some have already spent two weeks on China's moon base. TV sets have gone, replaced by special spectacles which can be adjusted for old-fashioned cinema, living room or rainforest setting. This means that viewers, apart from choosing the ending, can select the backdrop, for their viewing pleasure. The Spring Gala for 2024 was held in the US, part of the global TV rights package that saw the Oscars in Beijing.

The waiter is hovering.

"And how exactly would you like your humble pie, sir? Possibly with a side dish of apologetic vegetables or with a glass of wine. May I suggest a suitably embarrassed red."

查看譯文

“感謝朋友們關(guān)注酒泉衛(wèi)星發(fā)射中心火星探測(cè)器發(fā)射的實(shí)況轉(zhuǎn)播,現(xiàn)在我們將畫面轉(zhuǎn)向北京,關(guān)注奧斯卡典禮。觀眾們不要感到驚訝,這是奧斯卡頒獎(jiǎng)典禮第一次走出美國(guó)。2024年度最佳影片的桂冠由《大連》摘得,影片講述了一個(gè)石油大亨和他的家庭的故事,片中事業(yè)與愛(ài)情的主題相互雜糅。影片《美國(guó)騙局》和《牛頓定律》獲得本屆奧斯卡最佳影片的提名,兩部影片都是2014年上映影片的續(xù)集。值得一提的是,本屆奧斯卡中提名的最佳男女演員中出現(xiàn)了機(jī)器人。而且,男女主角提名中,五個(gè)機(jī)器人中有三個(gè)是中國(guó)制造,男女配角提名中,有兩個(gè)機(jī)器人出自中國(guó)。如今,電影已經(jīng)不同于十年前了,人們可以設(shè)計(jì)情節(jié),自由選定故事結(jié)局,奧斯卡也首次將此納入考慮,允許觀眾選擇自己喜愛(ài)的故事結(jié)尾?!边@也許就是十年后的生活景象。

正在飯館的我其實(shí)也沒(méi)什么可想的,除了廚師的做法,服務(wù)員的態(tài)度和肉餅的大小。不過(guò)我還是冒著消化不良的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),不理會(huì)服務(wù)員,暢想2024。

經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域變革

在經(jīng)濟(jì)事務(wù)中,世界貿(mào)易組織同意中國(guó)看法,認(rèn)為美元利用貨幣壟斷操縱貨幣,所以宣布貨幣平價(jià)將由中國(guó)和美國(guó)共同決定。消息一出,美元在12個(gè)月內(nèi)跌了28個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

此外,交易方式發(fā)生改變,紙幣和硬幣都已成過(guò)往,錢包成為了“古董”,只是有時(shí)拿出來(lái)給小孩看看,銀行甚至打出口號(hào):現(xiàn)金已經(jīng)過(guò)時(shí)!所有的金融交易將會(huì)在手機(jī)應(yīng)用和手腕上的嵌入式芯片上完成,人們也不需要在收銀臺(tái)前排隊(duì),只要通過(guò)掃描就能完成交易,帶走物品。

城市環(huán)境變化

到2024年,中國(guó)將有9.21億人居住在城市,占國(guó)家總?cè)丝诘?5%,這一數(shù)字是美國(guó)人口的2.5倍。

無(wú)人駕駛的汽車已司空見(jiàn)慣,真正新鮮的將是無(wú)人駕駛的飛機(jī)。機(jī)可容納20名乘客,在空中通道中飛行,兩家飛機(jī)間間隔2分鐘。第一個(gè)空中通道是已建成的北京上海航線。

農(nóng)民的生活也發(fā)生了改變,中國(guó)的大城市將應(yīng)用垂直農(nóng)業(yè),整個(gè)城市將實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)自給自足。農(nóng)民將農(nóng)產(chǎn)品一層層種植在高樓大廈中,充分利用太陽(yáng)能、風(fēng)能等能源。

預(yù)期壽命延長(zhǎng)

預(yù)期壽命將達(dá)100歲,而且人們完全有能力活到100歲。在中國(guó)自行車將再一次成為主流,中國(guó)將建立世界上第一個(gè)“環(huán)保城市”,路面僅允許自行車通行,交通和取暖都不準(zhǔn)使用化石燃料。此外,一些城市將考慮僅保留公共交通,禁止其他車輛通行。

教育模式改變

人們?cè)谑昵耙杨A(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)將成為世界第一大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,然而卻為考慮到教育領(lǐng)域的變化。世界頂級(jí)的八所大學(xué)認(rèn)定一項(xiàng)新測(cè)驗(yàn)測(cè)試高中畢業(yè)生,中國(guó)有三所大學(xué)參與其中。報(bào)考大學(xué)的高中畢業(yè)生必須參加測(cè)試,測(cè)試內(nèi)容為食品、語(yǔ)言、計(jì)算機(jī)、數(shù)學(xué)、國(guó)際漢語(yǔ)等諸多內(nèi)容,國(guó)際漢語(yǔ)測(cè)試是漢語(yǔ)水平測(cè)試的國(guó)際版,原本的考試針對(duì)境內(nèi)的母語(yǔ)非漢語(yǔ)人士,而現(xiàn)在的國(guó)際版將覆蓋全球,2024年,世界將有1500萬(wàn)人參加測(cè)試。國(guó)際漢語(yǔ)水平四級(jí)將成為境外多數(shù)工作的求職硬指標(biāo),因?yàn)楣椭飨M约旱膯T工能夠了解他們主要消費(fèi)者使用的語(yǔ)言。也許到2024年最暢銷的單品將是同聲傳譯耳機(jī),將所有語(yǔ)言譯成漢語(yǔ)。(不過(guò),參加國(guó)際漢語(yǔ)水平測(cè)試時(shí)可不能攜帶。)

改變的不僅僅發(fā)生在地球上。2024年,大約有一萬(wàn)人參加了太空旅游,去過(guò)最近的太空軌道,甚至有人在中國(guó)的月球基地呆上2周。電視機(jī)也漸漸淡出人們的視野,取而代之的一種特殊的眼鏡,能夠模擬電影院、家中客廳和雨林的背景。也就是說(shuō),觀眾不僅可以根據(jù)自己的喜好選擇結(jié)局還能夠選擇背景幕布。也許那時(shí)候2024春節(jié)聯(lián)歡晚會(huì)在美國(guó)舉辦,一些國(guó)家希望獲得中國(guó)舉辦的奧斯卡典禮的轉(zhuǎn)播權(quán)。

服務(wù)員猶豫地問(wèn)道:“先生,除了肉餅需要一些佐餐嗎?加些蔬菜或是來(lái)點(diǎn)酒?要不來(lái)杯紅葡萄酒?”

(譯者:吳溦 編輯:丹妮)

 

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