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距離美國大選日還有不到一個月的時間,兩黨候選人在辯論中使出各種招數突出自己、詆毀對方。據說,從上世紀90年代中期開始,美國大選過程中就開始出現(xiàn)一些以影響民意為目的的民調,英文叫做push poll。
Push poll is an opinion poll whose real purpose is to influence people's opinions rather than to collect information about them.
Push poll指以民調之名行影響民意之實的民意調查,這種調查的真正目的不是收集人們的意見,而是影響人們的看法,即“推手民調”。
In essence, a push poll is something approaching a smear campaign masquerading as an opinion poll. A push poll typically involves phoning very large numbers of voters and, in the guise of doing a survey to find out how certain pieces of 'information' may affect their voting preferences, feeding them false or damaging information about a particular candidate. The idea then is to 'push' them away from any rival candidate and steer them towards the candidate that the caller supports.
從本質上來看,“推手民調”更像是偽裝成民意調查的“抹黑大戰(zhàn)(smear campaign)”。這種調查通常會電話聯(lián)絡大量的選民,假裝調查哪些“信息”會影響選民的投票決定,而在此過程中向選民灌輸有關某個候選人的虛假或破壞性信息。這樣做的目的是將選民從競爭對手那里“推開”,轉而支持調查方這邊的候選人。
The essential difference between a push poll and a valid opinion poll, is that the latter merely attempts to elicit opinions, whilst the former aims to change and influence them. In a push poll, large numbers of respondents are contacted, but little or no effort is made to collect and analyze response data because no-one is really interested in this information once the phone call is over, the main aim having been to negatively influence the targeted candidate.
“推手民調”和真正的民調之間的本質區(qū)別是,民意調查只是為了收集民意,而“推手”調查是為了改變和影響民意。在“推手”調查中,大量受訪者會接到調查信息,但是并沒有人做后續(xù)的信息收集和分析工作,因為在調查電話掛斷以后,就沒有人再對那些信息感興趣了?!巴剖帧闭{查的主要目的是對某個特定候選人產生負面影響。
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