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England will finally win the World Cup after 44 years of pain if City boffins are to be believed.
European champions Spain will be runners-up with the Netherlands winning the third place play-off, according to J.P. Morgan quantitative analysts who issued their findings on Tuesday ahead of the World Cup (June 11-July 11) kick-off.
They predict world number one team Brazil will fall short in South Africa because of a tougher route through to the final than their main rivals.
The quantitative analysts at J.P.Morgan used information such as FIFA ranking, historical results and its J.P.Morgan Team Strength Indicator to come up with a mathematical model to predict match results, they explained.
However, they warned "this report should be taken with a pinch of salt" and that it is an exercise to "light-heartedly explain quantitative techniques and demystify the typical quant framework."
The analysts usually use these kind of mathematical models to help predict stock market winners with millions of dollars hanging on their calculations.
England last won football's biggest prize in 1966 when the Beatles topped the charts with Yellow Submarine and Harold Wilson was Prime Minister.
In the latest official FIFA rankings, England were in eighth position and Spain were second.
(Read by Lee Hannon. Lee Hannon is a journalist at the China Daily Web site.)
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(Agencies)
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英國(guó)的金融業(yè)分析人士日前做出預(yù)測(cè)，英格蘭足球隊(duì)在歷經(jīng)44年的磨難后，將奪本屆世界杯的冠軍。
今年的世界杯足球賽將于6月11日至7月11日舉行。摩根大通公司的數(shù)量分析專家于本周二發(fā)布預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果稱，歐洲冠軍西班牙隊(duì)將獲得本屆世界杯的亞軍，荷蘭隊(duì)將獲季軍。
據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，世界排名第一的巴西隊(duì)在南非世界杯上恐怕無(wú)緣冠軍，因?yàn)榕c他們的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手相比，巴西隊(duì)晉級(jí)決賽的道路更為艱難。
據(jù)介紹，摩根大通公司的數(shù)量分析專家通過(guò)分析國(guó)際足聯(lián)排名、歷史戰(zhàn)績(jī)以及摩根大通球隊(duì)實(shí)力指數(shù)等信息，得出了一個(gè)用來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)比賽結(jié)果的數(shù)學(xué)模型。
但他們同時(shí)提醒稱，“大家應(yīng)帶有保留地看待這一預(yù)測(cè)”，這是“用通俗的方式解釋數(shù)量分析法，讓數(shù)量分析框架淺顯化”的一次嘗試。
分析人士通常使用這類數(shù)學(xué)模型來(lái)幫助預(yù)測(cè)股市贏家，他們的計(jì)算結(jié)果常常關(guān)系到數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元的資金運(yùn)作。
英格蘭隊(duì)上一次捧走大力神杯還是在1966年。當(dāng)年，披頭士樂(lè)隊(duì)的專輯《黃色潛水艇》橫掃各音樂(lè)排行榜，英國(guó)的當(dāng)政首相還是哈羅德?威爾遜。
在國(guó)際足聯(lián)最新排名中，英格蘭隊(duì)位居第八，西班牙隊(duì)位居第二。
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（中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)網(wǎng)英語(yǔ)點(diǎn)津 Julie 編輯蔡姍姍）
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