隨著更好統(tǒng)籌疫情防控和經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展，我國(guó)實(shí)體商業(yè)人氣回暖，線上零售增勢(shì)不減，餐飲、電影票房復(fù)蘇強(qiáng)勁，節(jié)日市場(chǎng)繁榮有序。持續(xù)升溫的假日消費(fèi)，彰顯中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的潛力和韌性。

China's economic recovery is on the right track and the recovery of consumption of services has gotten off to a strong start, said experts at foreign institutions.

外國(guó)機(jī)構(gòu)專家表示，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇步入正軌，服務(wù)業(yè)消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇開(kāi)局強(qiáng)勁。

The country's offline consumer service sectors like tourism, movies and catering, which were severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, saw a strong rebound in demand during the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday in late January, said Fitch Ratings.

惠譽(yù)評(píng)級(jí)表示，受新冠肺炎疫情嚴(yán)重打擊的旅游、電影和餐飲等線下消費(fèi)服務(wù)行業(yè)，在1月底春節(jié)黃金周期間需求強(qiáng)勁反彈。

Domestic tourist trips during the holiday jumped 23.1 percent year-on-year, recovering to around 90 percent of the pre-pandemic level during the same period of 2019, while tourism spending rose 30 percent year-on-year. Cinema box-office receipts achieved the second-highest take on record, and the number of tickets sold was only slightly below the 2019 level, according to official figures.

今年春節(jié)假期期間，我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)旅游人次同比增長(zhǎng)23.1%，恢復(fù)到疫情前2019年同期水平的90%左右，旅游消費(fèi)同比增長(zhǎng)30%。官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2023年春節(jié)檔票房成績(jī)位居中國(guó)影史第二，觀影人次僅略低于2019年的水平。

National retail and catering revenues reported by key enterprises increased 6.8 percent year-on-year. Dine-in consumption at restaurants and eateries grew strongly by 15.4 percent year-on-year, with average restaurant spending up 10.8 percent, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

全國(guó)重點(diǎn)企業(yè)零售和餐飲收入同比增長(zhǎng)6.8%。根據(jù)商務(wù)部的數(shù)據(jù)，堂食消費(fèi)額同比大增15.4%，餐館平均消費(fèi)額增長(zhǎng)了10.8%。

Darius Tang, associate director of corporates at Fitch Bohua, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, said: "The decisive factor of China's economic growth in 2023 is the degree of consumption recovery, which depends on the strength of the stimulus policies and how COVID-19 would evolve. Even though these are still uncertain, the expansion of consumption scenarios triggered by the adjustment of pandemic control measures has a very definite and positive effect on the recovery of consumption."

惠譽(yù)評(píng)級(jí)子公司惠譽(yù)博華工商企業(yè)部副總監(jiān)唐大千表示：“2023年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的決定性因素是消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇的程度，這取決于刺激政策的力度以及新冠病毒將如何變異。盡管這些仍存在不確定性，但疫情防控措施調(diào)整引發(fā)的消費(fèi)場(chǎng)景擴(kuò)大對(duì)消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇具有非常明確和積極的影響?！?/p>

Lu Ting, Nomura's chief China economist, said, "As sequential GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 was much faster than we had expected, and as China's population seems to be reaching herd immunity quickly following the reopening in early December, we are raising our 2023 annual GDP growth forecast to 5.3 percent from 4.8 percent."

野村證券中國(guó)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家陸挺表示：“由于中國(guó)2022年四季度GDP環(huán)比增速遠(yuǎn)超預(yù)期，并且在2022年12月初迎來(lái)重新開(kāi)放后，國(guó)內(nèi)建立免疫屏障的速度快于預(yù)期，我們將對(duì)2023年全年GDP增速的預(yù)期從4.8%上調(diào)至5.3%。”

The country's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 50.1 in January, up from 47 in December, ending three months of contraction. Thanks to recovery of the services sector, nonmanufacturing business activity index significantly increased to 54.4 from 41.6, much better than the expected 51.5.

1月份，中國(guó)公布的制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)（PMI）升至50.1，高于去年12月的47，結(jié)束了連續(xù)3個(gè)月的收縮。得益于服務(wù)業(yè)的復(fù)蘇，非制造業(yè)商務(wù)活動(dòng)指數(shù)從41.6大幅上升至54.4，遠(yuǎn)好于預(yù)期的51.5。

The January rebound in PMI is in line with consumption figures during the Lunar New Year holiday, demonstrating a strong recovery in the Chinese economy. More importantly, the number of COVID-19 infections did not rebound significantly during the holiday, paving the way for further normalization of production and consumption activities, said the UBS Chief Investment Office.

1月份PMI的反彈與春節(jié)期間的消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)相符，表明中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇。瑞銀首席投資辦公室表示，更重要的是，新冠肺炎感染人數(shù)在假期期間沒(méi)有明顯反彈，為生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)活動(dòng)的進(jìn)一步正?；伷搅说缆贰?/p>

This year, although slower exports will have a negative impact on China's economic growth, consumption growth in the country is expected to rebound to about 7 percent. In addition, investment is likely to stabilize at around 5.5 percent. Combined, these factors will hopefully drive the full-year economic growth to about 5 percent, said analysts at the UBS CIO.

今年，盡管出口放緩將對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響，但中國(guó)的消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將反彈至7%左右。另外，投資也有可能穩(wěn)定在5.5%左右。瑞銀首席投資辦公室的分析師說(shuō)，綜合這些因素，有望推動(dòng)全年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)達(dá)到5%左右。

來(lái)源：中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)

編輯：yaning