中國(guó)金融四十人論壇的青年研究員認(rèn)為，當(dāng)前中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)低迷有疫情因素，但是也有家庭可支配收入不足的原因。通過(guò)補(bǔ)貼中低收入群體、精準(zhǔn)的消費(fèi)刺激政策和補(bǔ)償小微企業(yè)等措施可以有效提高家庭可支配收入，從而保證中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)。

After several major shock waves of COVID-19 outbreaks since 2020, China's economy has gradually recovered from the impact brought by the contagion, though recovery in household consumption has been relatively slow. There is still a certain gap between current household consumption levels and originally expected levels, or the trendline level for the sector. The gap is mainly attributable to some nonessential consumption sectors including education, entertainment, transportation and healthcare.

自2020年以來(lái)暴發(fā)了幾輪新冠疫情后，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已逐步從疫情影響中恢復(fù)過(guò)來(lái)，但是家庭消費(fèi)水平的恢復(fù)仍然相對(duì)緩慢。當(dāng)前家庭消費(fèi)水平和原來(lái)預(yù)期的消費(fèi)趨勢(shì)之間仍然存在著一定差距。這一差距主要源自包括教育、娛樂(lè)、交通和醫(yī)療等非必需消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域的消費(fèi)支出減少。

Trendlines are used to analyze the specific direction of a group of values or phenomena. There are two kinds of trendlines－uptrends and downtrends. Trendlines allow businesses to see differences at various points over a period of time. This helps foretell possible paths values might take in the future, and reveal performance, value and competitiveness factors of specific products and services, along with relevant business departments, such as sales.

趨勢(shì)線(xiàn)被用來(lái)分析一組價(jià)值或現(xiàn)象的具體方向，有上升和下降兩種趨勢(shì)線(xiàn)。通過(guò)趨勢(shì)線(xiàn)，企業(yè)可以看到一段時(shí)期內(nèi)各個(gè)點(diǎn)的差異。這有助于預(yù)測(cè)價(jià)值的未來(lái)走向，揭示特定產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)以及相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)部門(mén)（比如銷(xiāo)售）的表現(xiàn)、價(jià)值和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

The trendline hereafter mentioned is calculated based on data of total consumer spending collected through government surveys from 2013 to 2021.

以下所提到的趨勢(shì)線(xiàn)是基于2013年到2021年政府調(diào)查收集的消費(fèi)者支出總額數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算得出的。

Based on calculations using official data, we made a comparison between actual household consumption with calculated trendlines in the corresponding period and found that though the gap between household consumption in 2021 and the trendline is significantly narrower than that in 2020, the gap still exists, which stands at some 590 billion yuan ($92.6 billion).

基于對(duì)官方數(shù)據(jù)的計(jì)算，我們將實(shí)際家庭消費(fèi)和對(duì)應(yīng)時(shí)期計(jì)算所得的趨勢(shì)線(xiàn)做了一個(gè)比較，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，2021年家庭消費(fèi)和趨勢(shì)線(xiàn)之間的差距比2020年的差距要小得多，但是差距依然存在，約為5900億元。

If viewed from a consumption structure, among the eight major categories of consumer spending, the consumption of daily necessities, such as clothing, housing, food, tobacco and alcohol, in 2021 has basically returned to the trendline level shown before the COVID-19 outbreak. However, recovery in nonessential consumption sectors, such as durable goods and services, is slower than expected, with the gap between current consumption levels and the trendline level shown before the COVID-19 outbreak still relatively large. Among all sectors witnessing consumption gaps in 2021, education, culture and entertainment consumption make up the largest portions. Other nonessential－or optional－consumption sectors, though having seen narrower gaps, are still falling behind the trendline level, among which transportation and communication consumption makes up the major part, followed by education, culture and entertainment.

從消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)來(lái)看，在八大消費(fèi)類(lèi)別中，服裝、住房、食品、煙草和酒精等日常必需品的消費(fèi)在2021年已基本回歸至新冠疫情暴發(fā)前預(yù)期的趨勢(shì)水平。然而，耐用品和服務(wù)等非必需消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域的復(fù)蘇比預(yù)期要緩慢，當(dāng)前消費(fèi)水平與疫情前預(yù)期的趨勢(shì)水平之間的差距仍相對(duì)較大。2021年存在消費(fèi)差距的所有領(lǐng)域中，教育、文化和娛樂(lè)消費(fèi)占比最大。其他非必需或可選消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域盡管差距縮小，但仍落后于趨勢(shì)水平，其中交通、通信消費(fèi)落后最多，其次是教育、文化和娛樂(lè)消費(fèi)。

Based on the above information, it is obvious that there is still great potential for consumption recovery, and the key to unleashing that potential is to identify restrictive factors. Currently, there are two mainstream explanations surrounding the slow recovery in consumption. One is that the current COVID-19 situation is affecting the recovery of household consumption to a certain extent, especially that of services consumption. The other is that the slow recovery of consumption actually reflects that household incomes have not fully recovered.

基于上述信息可明顯看出，消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇還有很大潛力，釋放這一潛力的關(guān)鍵就是識(shí)別限制因素。目前，圍繞消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇緩慢有兩大主流解釋。其一是當(dāng)前的新冠疫情在某種程度上影響了家庭消費(fèi)的恢復(fù)，尤其是服務(wù)類(lèi)消費(fèi)。其二是消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇緩慢實(shí)際上反映出家庭收入還未完全恢復(fù)。

The impact of COVID-19 situation on goods consumption is obviously much smaller than that on services, so if COVID-19 situation is the main factor restricting household consumption, we are supposed to have a clear view of a structural differentiation in commodities and services consumption－that is, commodity consumption gradually inching closer to the trendline level, while service consumption deviates significantly from its own.

新冠疫情對(duì)商品消費(fèi)的影響顯然比對(duì)服務(wù)消費(fèi)的影響小得多，所以如果疫情是限制家庭消費(fèi)的主要因素，我們應(yīng)該對(duì)商品和服務(wù)消費(fèi)的結(jié)構(gòu)性差異有一個(gè)清晰認(rèn)知，也就是，商品消費(fèi)逐漸接近趨勢(shì)水平，而服務(wù)消費(fèi)仍和趨勢(shì)水平有較大差距。

However, according to our calculations based on official data since 2021, the gap of actual consumer goods consumption between its trendline level－which has been narrowing from the start of the year－h(huán)as remained steady since July 2021, with no signs of further narrowing for the remainder of the year. The gap between services consumption and its trendline level is even larger, reflecting shocks of several rounds of domestic COVID-19 resurgences to the sector.

但是，根據(jù)我們基于2021年以來(lái)官方數(shù)據(jù)的計(jì)算，實(shí)際消費(fèi)品消費(fèi)和趨勢(shì)線(xiàn)之間的差距從2022年初就開(kāi)始縮小，而且自2021年7月以來(lái)一直保持穩(wěn)定，下半年也沒(méi)有顯示出繼續(xù)縮小的跡象。服務(wù)消費(fèi)和趨勢(shì)水平之間的差距甚至更大，反映出國(guó)內(nèi)疫情數(shù)次反復(fù)對(duì)服務(wù)行業(yè)的沖擊。

The analysis, together with the figures, tell us the significance of raising household disposable incomes in maintaining China's stable growth this year.

分析和數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)合在一起，告訴我們提高家庭可支配收入對(duì)于保持中國(guó)今年經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)的重要性。

Household disposable consumption is not only the foundation for better livelihoods, but also a pillar for stable economic growth. The current relative sluggish consumption performance is certainly due to the pandemic, but a more important reason is the lack of disposable income. Therefore, increasing disposable income and shaping good income expectations are the basis of, and key to, promoting consumption.

家庭可支配收入不僅是改善民生的基石，也是經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)的支柱。當(dāng)前消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)緩慢肯定和疫情有關(guān)，但是更重要的原因是缺乏可支配收入。因此，增加可支配收入和形成良好的收入預(yù)期是促進(jìn)消費(fèi)的基礎(chǔ)和關(guān)鍵。

Our first thought to this end is that macroeconomic policies should always focus on "steady growth", as was highlighted in many recent top meetings. Continued efforts are needed to ensure a reasonable economic growth rate and full employment, and consolidate the economic foundation to improve household incomes. In this process, fiscal policy is particularly important. It is necessary to demonstrate a clear expansion in the level of fiscal expenditure growth while having clear visibility of the bottom line－the growth rate of fiscal expenditure cannot be lower than the nominal GDP growth rate.

對(duì)此我們的第一個(gè)建議是宏觀政策應(yīng)該始終聚焦“穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)”，正如近期多次高層會(huì)議所強(qiáng)調(diào)的那樣。我們要不斷致力于確保合理的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度和充分就業(yè)，筑牢經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)以提高家庭收入。在這一過(guò)程中，財(cái)政政策尤其重要。既有必要展現(xiàn)出財(cái)政支出水平的明顯擴(kuò)張態(tài)勢(shì)，同時(shí)也要明確底線(xiàn)——財(cái)政支出的增長(zhǎng)率不能低于名義GDP增長(zhǎng)率。

Second, the structure of public spending should be continuously optimized. In addition to tax and fee reductions for the corporate sector, subsidies for low and middle-income groups should also be strengthened. During economic downturns, vulnerable families are the first to suffer. By issuing temporary subsidies to low-income groups, the elderly and infants, such a policy can help achieve two goals－protecting people's livelihoods and helping boost consumption. A common concern is that subsidies will primarily translate into savings rather than consumption. It should be noted that if subsidies are mainly transformed into savings rather than consumption, there will be no pressure on inflation. No monetary and fiscal policy space will be consumed, and the policy cost will be very low.

其次，應(yīng)該不斷優(yōu)化公共支出結(jié)構(gòu)。除了對(duì)企業(yè)的減稅降費(fèi)，也要加強(qiáng)對(duì)中低收入群體的補(bǔ)貼。在經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期，困難家庭是最先受苦的。通過(guò)給低收入群體、老人和嬰兒發(fā)放臨時(shí)補(bǔ)貼，這類(lèi)政策有助于達(dá)到兩個(gè)目標(biāo)——維持百姓的生計(jì)和幫助促進(jìn)消費(fèi)。一個(gè)共同關(guān)注的問(wèn)題是這些補(bǔ)貼主要會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)化為積蓄而不是消費(fèi)。值得注意的是，如果補(bǔ)貼主要轉(zhuǎn)化為積蓄而非消費(fèi)，對(duì)通貨膨脹將不會(huì)產(chǎn)生壓力。貨幣和財(cái)政政策空間不會(huì)被消耗，政策成本也會(huì)很低。

Third, the government should implement more precise and powerful consumption stimulus policies based on prices and income elasticity of different consumer goods. The income and price elasticity of optional consumption sectors, such as education, entertainment, transportation and medical care, is relatively high, and these sectors are exactly where sluggish consumption is witnessed. Consumer coupons, consumption subsidies and other means of encouraging measures should focus on these sectors to obtain greater policy effect.

第三，政府應(yīng)該基于不同消費(fèi)品的價(jià)格和收入彈性實(shí)施更精準(zhǔn)更有力的消費(fèi)刺激政策。教育、娛樂(lè)、交通和醫(yī)療等可選消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域的收入和價(jià)格彈性相對(duì)較高，正是這些領(lǐng)域消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)緩慢。消費(fèi)券、消費(fèi)補(bǔ)貼和其他鼓勵(lì)消費(fèi)的手段應(yīng)該集中于這些領(lǐng)域以獲得更大的政策效果。

Last but not least it is important to alleviate the anxiety brought by the uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic for small and micro enterprises and self-employed business owners. These very market entities are all associated with mass employment, especially low- and middle-income earners. The government can set up a special fund to cover their expenses related to COVID-19 prevention, such as nucleic acid testing, quarantine costs and treatment.

最后但同樣重要的是，應(yīng)該減輕新冠疫情的不確定性給小微企業(yè)和個(gè)體工商戶(hù)帶來(lái)的焦慮情緒。這些市場(chǎng)主體和大眾就業(yè)緊密相關(guān)，尤其是中低收入者。政府可以設(shè)立專(zhuān)項(xiàng)資金來(lái)覆蓋他們的疫情防控相關(guān)費(fèi)用，比如核酸檢測(cè)、隔離成本和治療。

Compensation measures for market players that have suffered from the COVID-19 pandemic should be formulated, and market players should be informed in advance that they may be compensated for their operating losses due to pandemic prevention and control work. Developing targeted capital support to help smaller enterprises resume operations is also helpful to this end. Such efforts will strengthen market players' confidence in investment and operations, and enable them to play bigger roles in supporting the nation's stable growth.

對(duì)遭受疫情打擊的市場(chǎng)主體應(yīng)采取補(bǔ)償措施，并提前告知市場(chǎng)主體他們因疫情防控而承受的運(yùn)營(yíng)損失可以獲得補(bǔ)償。精準(zhǔn)投放扶持資金來(lái)幫助中小企業(yè)復(fù)產(chǎn)也有助于緩解市場(chǎng)主體的焦慮情緒。這些舉措將能加強(qiáng)市場(chǎng)主體對(duì)于投資和運(yùn)營(yíng)的信心，從而讓他們對(duì)支持國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)發(fā)揮更大的作用。

本文觀點(diǎn)不代表《中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)》的觀點(diǎn)。

英文來(lái)源：中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)

作者：中國(guó)金融四十人論壇青年研究員朱鶴、盛中明

翻譯&編輯：丹妮