分析人士5月5日表示，盡管受國(guó)內(nèi)疫情擾動(dòng)及海外美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息等多重因素影響，但在更有力的政策支持和更有效的疫情防控之下，預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將保持其韌性，并可能在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)回升。

The Chinese economy is expected to maintain its resilience and may rebound in the coming months with stronger policy support and better epidemic containment, bucking the negative impact of a tightening in US monetary policy, analysts said on Thursday.
分析人士5月5日表示，在更有力的政策支持和更有效的疫情防控之下，預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將保持其韌性，并可能在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)回升，抵御美國(guó)貨幣政策緊縮帶來(lái)的消極影響。

They made the remarks after the US Federal Reserve approved a half-percentage point interest rate increase on Wednesday－its second hike this year and its biggest in 22 years－to stem the highest inflation level in the US in four decades.
在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)5月4日宣布加息半個(gè)百分點(diǎn)后分析人士發(fā)表了上述言論。這是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年第二次加息，也是22年來(lái)最大幅度加息，目的是遏制美國(guó)40年來(lái)最高水平的通貨膨脹。

Apart from raising its target federal funds rate to a range between 0.75 percent and 1 percent, the Fed said it could further impose half-percentage point hikes in each of the next two months and will start balance sheet reduction from June.
除了將美國(guó)聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)上調(diào)至0.75%至1%之間，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)還表示，未來(lái)兩個(gè)月可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步上調(diào)半個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，并將從6月開始縮減資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。

Huang Yiping, chairman of the academic committee of the China Finance 40 Forum, said the Fed's ongoing tightening could shrink global liquidity and pile on the pressure of capital outflows and currency depreciation on many developing economies.
中國(guó)金融四十人論壇學(xué)術(shù)委員會(huì)主席黃益平表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)持續(xù)的緊縮政策可能會(huì)收縮全球資產(chǎn)流動(dòng)性，并給許多發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體帶來(lái)資本外流和貨幣貶值的壓力。

For China, the country's vast domestic economy, relatively sound fundamentals, large foreign exchange reserves and a steady trade surplus provide a buffer against the spillover effects of US tightening, Huang said.
黃益平稱，對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說，中國(guó)龐大的國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)、相對(duì)穩(wěn)健的基本面、龐大的外匯儲(chǔ)備和穩(wěn)定的貿(mào)易順差為美國(guó)緊縮政策的溢出效應(yīng)提供了緩沖。

"Yet the key (to cushioning the spillover) remains stabilizing macroeconomic conditions," said Huang, who is also a former member of the monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank.
曾任中國(guó)人民銀行貨幣政策委員會(huì)委員的黃益平表示：“然而（緩沖溢出效應(yīng)的）關(guān)鍵仍然是穩(wěn)定宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況?！?/p>

"If the economy continuously weakens, the impact of US tightening will be amplified with a stronger tendency of investors to trim holdings in Chinese financial assets. However, if China's economy maintains steady growth and offers decent investment returns, the risk of capital outflows will ease," he said.
他稱：“如果經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)疲軟，美國(guó)緊縮政策的影響將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大，投資者將更傾向于減少對(duì)中國(guó)金融資產(chǎn)的持有。然而，如果中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)保持穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)并提供可觀的投資回報(bào)，資本外流的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將得到緩解?！?/p>

China has strengthened efforts to stabilize the economy, a step that was decided at a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, the Party's core leadership, on April 29 to step up macro policy adjustments and work hard to achieve annual economic and social development goals.
4月29日中共中央政治局會(huì)議決定，采取更強(qiáng)有力的措施穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)，加強(qiáng)宏觀政策調(diào)整，努力實(shí)現(xiàn)年度經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展目標(biāo)。

Different regulators have since pledged more measures to support the economy, with the central bank vowing on Wednesday it would formulate new policy tools at an early date to stabilize economic growth, employment and price levels.
此后，各監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)承諾采取更多措施支持經(jīng)濟(jì)，人民銀行5月4日承諾將在近期制定新的政策工具，以穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、就業(yè)和價(jià)格水平。

Supportive measures in addition to those previously set for the year have become necessary not only due to the challenges brought by the Fed's tightening, but because of the shocks caused by a resurgence in domestic COVID-19 cases and a worsening in geopolitical tensions, experts said.
專家表示，除了先前為今年制定的措施外，還需要采取支持性措施，這不僅是因?yàn)槊缆?lián)儲(chǔ)緊縮政策帶來(lái)的挑戰(zhàn)，也是因?yàn)閲?guó)內(nèi)新冠疫情反彈以及地緣政治緊張局勢(shì)的惡化所造成的沖擊。

China's service activity fell in April at the sharpest rate since the initial COVID lockdowns in early 2020, a private survey released by the Caixin media group said on Thursday.
財(cái)新傳媒集團(tuán)5月5日發(fā)布的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，中國(guó)4月份的服務(wù)業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)出現(xiàn)了自2020年初首次疫情封控以來(lái)最大幅度的下降。

The Caixin China General Services Purchasing Managers' Index, which gauges service activity, dropped from 42.0 in March to 36.2 in April, the lowest reading since February 2020 and having contracted for the second consecutive month.
衡量服務(wù)業(yè)活動(dòng)的財(cái)新中國(guó)通用服務(wù)業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)指數(shù)從3月的42.0降至4月的36.2，這是自2020年2月以來(lái)的最低水平，并已連續(xù)兩個(gè)月收縮。

Huang said it is sensible for fiscal policy to beef up support by directly bolstering domestic demand, adding that reducing interest rates could help improve corporate cash flows but could intensify the pressure of stabilizing cross-border capital flows.
黃益平稱，財(cái)政政策通過直接提振國(guó)內(nèi)需求來(lái)加強(qiáng)支持是明智之舉。他補(bǔ)充說，降低利率可能有助于改善企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流，但可能會(huì)加大穩(wěn)定跨境資本流的壓力。

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, said it could be advisable to issue special treasury bonds to accelerate infrastructure investment and subsidize smaller businesses, low-income groups, and hard-hit sectors.
粵開證券首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家羅志恒表示，可以發(fā)行特別國(guó)債以加快基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資、補(bǔ)貼小企業(yè)、低收入群體和受重創(chuàng)行業(yè)。

Upon better containment of COVID-19 and proactive policy support, the Chinese economy is poised to stage a strong rebound after hitting a nadir in April, said Yin Yue, a macroeconomic analyst at Hongta Securities.
紅塔證券宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師殷悅（音譯）表示，在疫情得到有效控制以及國(guó)內(nèi)政策積極主動(dòng)發(fā)力之下，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在4月份觸底后將迎來(lái)強(qiáng)勁回升。

Yin said the impact of the domestic COVID-19 outbreak is gradually fading with the restoration of supply chain activity, while infrastructure construction has maintained a buoyant expansion rate in April and helped offset downward economic pressures.
殷悅稱，隨著供應(yīng)鏈的恢復(fù)，國(guó)內(nèi)疫情的影響正在逐漸減弱，而4月份基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)保持了強(qiáng)勁的擴(kuò)張速度，有助于抵消經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力。

Yet experts caution that uncertainties surrounding the COVID-19 situation and the external environment could still complicate China's economic recovery and weigh on the yuan.
然而，專家警告稱，圍繞新冠疫情和外部環(huán)境的不確定性仍可能使中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇復(fù)雜化，并對(duì)人民幣造成壓力。

Zhang Liqing, director of the Central University of Finance and Economics' Center for International Finance Studies, said the yuan may continue to face depreciation pressure this year as US tightening underpins the dollar and the epidemic situation in major Chinese cities aggravates economic uncertainties.
中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)國(guó)際金融研究中心主任張禮卿表示，今年人民幣可能繼續(xù)面臨貶值壓力，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)收緊貨幣政策支撐美元，而中國(guó)主要城市的疫情加劇了經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性。

The onshore yuan dropped to 6.62 against the dollar on Thursday afternoon, having weakened by nearly 4 percent since the beginning of the year.
5月5日下午，在岸人民幣兌美元匯率跌至6.62，自年初以來(lái)已貶值近4%。

來(lái)源：中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)
編輯：董靜