國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）19日發(fā)布最新一期《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望報(bào)告》，預(yù)計(jì)2022年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長(zhǎng)3.6%，較1月份預(yù)測(cè)值下調(diào)0.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slashed global growth forecast for 2022 to 3.6 percent amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, 0.8 percentage point lower than the January projection, according to its newly released World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.
根據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）最新發(fā)布《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望報(bào)告》，受俄烏沖突影響，4月19日該機(jī)構(gòu)將2022年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期下調(diào)至3.6%，較1月份預(yù)測(cè)值下調(diào)0.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

The Ukraine crisis unfolds while the global economy is "on a mending path" but has not yet fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, the report said, noting that global economic prospects have worsened "significantly" since the forecast in January.
IMF報(bào)告指出，烏克蘭危機(jī)爆發(fā)之際，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正“走在復(fù)蘇的道路上”，但尚未從疫情中完全恢復(fù)，自1月份做出預(yù)測(cè)以來，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景已經(jīng)“明顯”惡化。

A severe double-digit drop in GDP for Ukraine and a large contraction in Russia are "more than likely," along with worldwide spillovers through commodity markets, trade and financial channels, the report showed.
報(bào)告顯示，烏克蘭國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）出現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)嚴(yán)重下滑，且俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)急劇收縮的“可能性很大”，且還會(huì)通過大宗商品市場(chǎng)、貿(mào)易和金融途徑在全球范圍內(nèi)產(chǎn)生溢出效應(yīng)。

This year's growth outlook for the European Union has been revised downward by 1.1 percentage points to 2.8 percent due to the indirect effects of the conflict, making it a large contributor to the overall downward revision, according to the report.
報(bào)告稱，受俄烏沖突間接影響，歐盟今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景被下調(diào)了1.1％至2.8％，這成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速整體下調(diào)的另一因素。

The US economy is on track to grow 3.7 percent in 2022, 0.3 percentage point lower than the January projection, before growth moderating to 2.3 percent in 2023. 
美國(guó)今年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期為3.7%，較1月份預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)0.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，2023年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期放緩至2.3%。

China's National Bureau of Statistics said Monday the country's gross domestic product grew 4.8 percent year on year to 27.02 trillion yuan (about 4.24 trillion US dollars) in the first three months, which is a steady start in 2022 in the face of global challenges and a resurgence of COVID-19 cases.
中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局4月18日表示，一季度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值同比增長(zhǎng)4.8%，達(dá)27.02萬億元人民幣，面對(duì)國(guó)際挑戰(zhàn)和新冠疫情反彈，開局總體平穩(wěn)。

Analysts said the full-year growth target of 5.5 percent set by China's policymakers is still attainable but requires greater efforts, given increasing economic headwinds.
分析人士表示，中國(guó)政策制定者設(shè)定的5.5%全年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)仍然可以實(shí)現(xiàn)，但鑒于經(jīng)濟(jì)阻力不斷增加，需要做出更大努力。

Global growth is projected to decline from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in both 2022 and 2023, 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023, respectively, than in the January projection, the report noted.
報(bào)告指出，2022年和2023年的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期將從2021的6.1%下降到3.6%，較1月預(yù)測(cè)值分別下調(diào)0.8和0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

The latest report said the Russia-Ukraine conflict, monetary tightening and financial market volatility, and the pandemic would shape the near-term global outlook.
最新報(bào)告稱，俄烏沖突、貨幣緊縮和金融市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩，以及新冠疫情將影響全球經(jīng)濟(jì)短期前景。

Inflation has become "a clear and present danger" for many countries, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted in a blog published Tuesday morning.
IMF首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家皮埃爾·奧利維耶·古蘭沙在4月19日上午發(fā)表的一篇博文中指出，通貨膨脹已成為許多國(guó)家“一個(gè)明確而迫在眉睫的危險(xiǎn)”。

He said even prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflation surged on the back of soaring commodity prices and supply-demand imbalances, and many central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, had already moved toward tightening monetary policy.
他表示，在俄烏沖突之前，大宗商品價(jià)格飆升和供需失衡就導(dǎo)致通脹飆升，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)等許多央行已經(jīng)開始收緊貨幣政策。

Conflict-related disruptions "amplify those pressures," said Gourinchas. "We now project inflation will remain elevated for much longer."
古蘭沙稱，俄烏沖突引發(fā)的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果“加劇了這些壓力”?！拔覀儸F(xiàn)在預(yù)測(cè)高通脹率將持續(xù)更久?！?/p>

For 2022, inflation is projected at 5.7 percent in advanced economies and 8.7 percent in emerging markets and developing economies, 1.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than the January projection, the report showed.
報(bào)告顯示，2022年，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的通脹率預(yù)計(jì)為5.7%，新興市場(chǎng)和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的通脹率預(yù)計(jì)為8.7%，分別比1月份的預(yù)測(cè)高出1.8和2.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

Financial conditions tightened for emerging markets and developing countries immediately after the conflict, Gourinchas noted. "Several financial fragility risks remain, raising the prospect of a sharp tightening of global financial conditions as well as capital outflows," he said.
古蘭沙指出，沖突發(fā)生后，新興市場(chǎng)和發(fā)展中國(guó)家的金融狀況立即趨緊?！耙恍┙鹑诖嗳跣燥L(fēng)險(xiǎn)依然存在，這增加了全球金融狀況急劇收緊以及資本外流的可能性”。

On the fiscal side, policy space was already eroded in many countries by the pandemic, said the IMF chief economist. "The surge in commodity prices and the increase in global interest rates will further reduce fiscal space, especially for oil- and food-importing emerging markets and developing economies."
古蘭沙表示，疫情已經(jīng)侵蝕了許多國(guó)家的財(cái)政政策空間。“大宗商品價(jià)格飆升和全球利率上升將進(jìn)一步縮小財(cái)政空間，特別是對(duì)進(jìn)口石油和食品的新興市場(chǎng)和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體而言?！?/p>

The report also warned that the conflict increases the risk of a more "permanent fragmentation" of the world economy into geopolitical blocks with distinct technology standards, cross-border payment systems and reserve currencies.
報(bào)告還警告稱，俄烏沖突還增加了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)更永久地分裂為擁有不同技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、跨境支付系統(tǒng)和儲(chǔ)備貨幣的地緣政治集團(tuán)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

"Such a 'tectonic shift' would cause long-run efficiency losses, increase volatility and represent a major challenge to the rules-based framework that has governed international and economic relations for the last 75 years," Gourinchas said.
古蘭沙說：“這種‘結(jié)構(gòu)性轉(zhuǎn)變’將導(dǎo)致長(zhǎng)期效率損失，增加波動(dòng)性，并對(duì)過去75年來基于規(guī)則的國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系治理框架構(gòu)成重大挑戰(zhàn)?！?/p>

來源：新華社
編輯：董靜