華盛頓大學(xué)研究人員發(fā)表在《柳葉刀》的研究報告預(yù)測，全球人口將在2064年達到頂峰，約為97億，2100年將降至約88億。研究人員稱，這將是第一次由生育率下降而導(dǎo)致的全球人口下降。

According to a new study published in the Lancet journal, the world population will decline for the first time in the next century.
發(fā)表在《柳葉刀》雜志上的一項新研究稱，下個世紀(jì)全球人口將首次下降。

The world’s population is currently estimated to be at 7.8 billion people. According to the estimate, the global population would peak at around 9.7 billion in 2064. Then it will fall to 8.79 billion in 2100.
目前，全球人口預(yù)計為 78 億。 據(jù)估計，全球人口將在2064年達到峰值，約為97億。然后在 2100 年下降到 87.9 億。

Due to low birth rates and aging populations, up to 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, Spain, Portugal, South Korea, and others, might see their populations fall by more than 50%.
由于低出生率和人口老齡化，包括日本、泰國、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、韓國等在內(nèi)的多達 23 個國家的人口可能會下降 50% 以上。

China is the world’s most populated country. But it will see its population drop from 1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million in 2100.
中國是目前世界上人口最多的國家，但到2100年，中國的人口將從 2017 年的 14 億下降到 7.32 億。

The study noted the global trend of population decline. But it also predicted that some sections of the world would witness an increase in population.
這項研究指出了全球人口下降的趨勢，也預(yù)測世界某些地區(qū)將出現(xiàn)人口增長。

This encompasses North Africa, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa. It is likely to triple in population from 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100 over the century.
人口增長地區(qū)包括北非、中東和撒哈拉以南非洲。在本世紀(jì)內(nèi)，這些地區(qū)的人口可能會從2017年的10.3億增加到2100年的30.7億。

According to the study, the population of India, the world’s second-most populous country, will be approximately 1.09 billion in 2100.
該研究指出，2100年，世界第二人口大國印度的人口將為10.9億左右。

World population decline driven by fertility decline
生育率下降導(dǎo)致全球人口下降

Lead study author and Professor of Global Health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Stein Emil Vollset, told IFLScience, “The last time that global population declined was in the mid 14th century, due to the Black Plague. If our forecast is correct, it will be the first time population decline is driven by fertility decline, as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine.”
該研究主要作者、華盛頓大學(xué)健康指標(biāo)與評估研究所全球健康教授斯坦因·埃米爾·沃爾賽特告訴IFLScience網(wǎng)站：“全球人口上一次下降是在 14 世紀(jì)中葉，是黑死病導(dǎo)致的。如果我們的預(yù)測正確，這將是第一次由生育率下降而導(dǎo)致人口下降，而不是由于疫情或饑荒等原因。”

The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman has over her lifetime. The worldwide total fertility rate is likely to steadily drop, from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100. It is significantly below the minimum rate (2.1 live births per woman) necessary to maintain population levels, he added.
生育率是女性一生中平均生育子女的數(shù)量。全球總生育率可能會穩(wěn)步下降，從2017年的2.37下降到2100年的1.66。這遠低于維持人口水平所需的最低生育率（平均每位女性 2.1的生育率）。

來源：breezyscroll
編輯：董靜