美國(guó)加州的一場(chǎng)大火，蔓延了近一個(gè)月。

截至目前，已造成至少36人喪生，數(shù)萬(wàn)人逃離家鄉(xiāng)，燒毀了超過(guò)460萬(wàn)英畝的土地，相當(dāng)于24個(gè)紐約市……

有人甚至在情急之下跳入冰冷的湖水中，等了將近10個(gè)小時(shí)才得救……

然而，特朗普政府卻對(duì)問(wèn)題視而不見(jiàn)：

天氣很快就會(huì)涼快的，你就等著瞧吧。

It'll start getting cooler. You just watch.

應(yīng)對(duì)自然災(zāi)害，美國(guó)就只能坐以待斃，指望老天？

好像不只這一條路可以走！

《外交》雜志（Foreign Affairs）在近日發(fā)表的文章中，為美國(guó)指了另一條路——喊上中國(guó)！

這篇題為《從氣候?qū)用娣磳?duì)“脫鉤”——中美關(guān)系惡化將使環(huán)境保護(hù)難上加難》的文章開(kāi)篇就點(diǎn)明，應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化，中國(guó)的參與不可或缺。

文章明確表示，繼續(xù)與中國(guó)互通才是解決氣候危機(jī)的唯一明確途徑。而與中國(guó)“脫鉤”，無(wú)異于殺雞取卵、竭澤而漁。

Continuing to engage with China represents the only clear path to addressing the climate crisis. Decoupling, in contrast, would mean pursuing a small victory in the short term and courting disaster in the long term.

文章稱，應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化最有希望的方式，就是成立一個(gè)由主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體組成的“氣候俱樂(lè)部”。

But the most promising way to tackle climate change—the formation of a "climate club" of major economies…

如果與中國(guó)“脫鉤”，美國(guó)及其合作伙伴幾乎不可能建立強(qiáng)有力的激勵(lì)機(jī)制吸引中國(guó)加入氣候俱樂(lè)部，從而徹底失去預(yù)防最惡劣環(huán)境破壞問(wèn)題的希望。

Decoupling would make it almost impossible for the United States and its partners to create strong incentives for China to participate in a climate club and would thus scotch the best hope for preventing the worst-case scenarios of environmental devastation.

氣候變化困擾美國(guó)

近幾十年來(lái)，氣候變化對(duì)美國(guó)造成的影響不容小覷。

僅僅氣候變化一項(xiàng)，在未來(lái)30年，就將給美國(guó)帶來(lái)巨大的直接傷害，包括人員及財(cái)產(chǎn)損失等。

…even if one considers only the direct damage that climate change will likely inflict on the United States in just the next 30 years, the cost in terms of lost lives and property will be massive.

憂思科學(xué)家聯(lián)盟（Union of Concerned Scientists）2018年的一份報(bào)告顯示，未來(lái)30年內(nèi)，美國(guó)超過(guò)30萬(wàn)個(gè)沿海房屋將面臨周期性洪災(zāi)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，這意味著平均每年至少發(fā)生26次洪災(zāi)（或每?jī)芍芤淮危?/p>

During that time, according to a 2018 report by the Union of Concerned Scientists, more than 300,000 coastal homes in the United States will be at risk of chronic flooding, meaning a flood event at least 26 times a year—or every two weeks, on average.

美國(guó)商品期貨交易委員會(huì)（CFTC）最新發(fā)布的報(bào)告顯示，氣候變化已經(jīng)影響到美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的各個(gè)方面，包括基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、農(nóng)業(yè)、居民住房和商業(yè)房產(chǎn)，以及公眾健康和勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)力等。

The nearly 200-page report warned that climate change is already impacting or is anticipated to impact "nearly every facet of the economy", from infrastructure, agriculture, and residential and commercial property to people's health and labor productivity.

CFTC委員之一貝南姆（Rostin Behnam）稱：“美國(guó)正在不斷遭受極端天氣事件的打擊，從西部的大火到中西部的暴雨，再到墨西哥灣的颶風(fēng)。”

"Extreme weather events continue to sweep the nation from the severe wildfires of the West to the devastating Midwest derecho and damaging Gulf Coast hurricanes," CFTC Commissioner Rostin Behnam said in a statement.

他還表示：“不斷升級(jí)的氣候事件對(duì)我們的金融系統(tǒng)造成直接沖擊，破壞經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)?！?/p>

"…escalating weather events also pose significant challenges to our financial system and our ability to sustain long-term economic growth."

美國(guó)國(guó)防部的多項(xiàng)研究表明，氣候變化也導(dǎo)致美國(guó)國(guó)家安全的威脅成倍增加。

From the standpoint of US national security, climate change also represents a threat multiplier, according to numerous studies by the US Department of Defense.

有效的氣候政策卻淪為政治的犧牲品

盡管如此，美國(guó)似乎并未找到應(yīng)對(duì)氣候問(wèn)題的不二法門。

為此，作者發(fā)出感慨：很不幸，有效的氣候政策已經(jīng)淪為美國(guó)政治困境的犧牲品。

Unfortunately, effective climate policy has fallen victim to a political dilemma in the United States.

這一政治困境指的正是美國(guó)政界人士和專家不斷討論的中美“脫鉤”問(wèn)題。

過(guò)去幾年里，美國(guó)政界人士和專家，不斷討論美國(guó)是否應(yīng)該通過(guò)切斷中美之間的供應(yīng)鏈、貿(mào)易關(guān)系和金融聯(lián)系，讓全球最大的兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體“脫鉤”，使得世界經(jīng)濟(jì)從一個(gè)整體分裂成兩個(gè)獨(dú)立的勢(shì)力范圍。

The past few years have seen a heated debate among US politicians and analysts about whether the United States should "decouple" from China by severing the supply chains, trade relationships, and financial links that bind together the world's two largest economies, transforming a one-world economy into two separate spheres of influence.

然而，忽略“脫鉤”的經(jīng)濟(jì)代價(jià)是愚蠢的，更愚蠢的是忽視“脫鉤”將導(dǎo)致氣候變化問(wèn)題更難得到解決。

…it would be foolish to dismiss the economic costs of decoupling — and even more foolish to ignore the ways in which decoupling would make climate change harder, if not impossible, to address.

首先，“脫鉤”代價(jià)極其昂貴。供應(yīng)鏈將遭到破壞，美國(guó)公司在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的銷售量將減少，此外，美國(guó)大學(xué)將失去數(shù)十萬(wàn)中國(guó)學(xué)生。

First, decoupling would be enormously costly. It would disrupt supply chains, reduce the sales figures of US companies in the Chinese markets, and cost American universities hundreds of thousands of Chinese students.

其次，相互依存關(guān)系的削弱會(huì)增加其自身安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：大多數(shù)國(guó)際關(guān)系學(xué)者認(rèn)為，強(qiáng)有力的相互經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系即使不能完全消除國(guó)家間的沖突，也能減少國(guó)家間沖突的可能性。

Second, any reduction in interdependence would create security risks of its own: most scholars of international relations believe that strong, mutual economic links reduce the probability of conflict between states, even if they do not eliminate it completely.

美媒給出解決方案：

喊上中國(guó)才是唯一途徑！

文章稱，美國(guó)應(yīng)采取更為明智的外交政策，與歐洲國(guó)家一起，建立一個(gè)由主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體組成的國(guó)際氣候俱樂(lè)部。

The United States should take the first step by working with European countries to create an international climate club of major economies…

俱樂(lè)部將要求其成員執(zhí)行有利于氣候的政策，并且對(duì)俱樂(lè)部以外的所有國(guó)家/地區(qū)采取關(guān)稅等邊界調(diào)整政策。

Membership would obligate countries to enforce certain pro-climate policies, and the club would apply border adjustments, such as tariffs, on all countries outside of the club.

然而，這一策略的成功取決于俱樂(lè)部?jī)?nèi)部的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模。只有一個(gè)大型集團(tuán)才能使“脫碳”成為可能。這也意味著，任何成功的氣候俱樂(lè)部都必須包括中國(guó)。

This success of this strategy would depend on the size of the economies inside the club. Only a large group would make sufficient decarbonization possible — and that means that any successful climate club must include China.

所有這一切成立的前提是，美國(guó)不與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)“脫鉤”。

This approach would work, however, only if the United States did not decouple its economy from that of China.

如果兩國(guó)放棄過(guò)去30年來(lái)如此緊密聯(lián)系的貿(mào)易和投資，華盛頓將無(wú)法輕易說(shuō)服北京加入氣候俱樂(lè)部。

If the two countries were to walk away from the trade and investment that have so thoroughly linked them for the past three decades, Washington would have no easy way to persuade Beijing to join the climate club…

編輯：胡雨濛

實(shí)習(xí)生：李子儀