二、2019年經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展總體要求和政策取向
II. Economic and Social Development in 2019: Overall Requirements and Policy Directions

今年是新中國成立70周年，是全面建成小康社會(huì)、實(shí)現(xiàn)第一個(gè)百年奮斗目標(biāo)的關(guān)鍵之年。做好政府工作，要在以習(xí)近平同志為核心的黨中央堅(jiān)強(qiáng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，以習(xí)近平新時(shí)代中國特色社會(huì)主義思想為指導(dǎo)，全面貫徹黨的十九大和十九屆二中、三中全會(huì)精神，統(tǒng)籌推進(jìn)“五位一體”總體布局，協(xié)調(diào)推進(jìn)“四個(gè)全面”戰(zhàn)略布局，堅(jiān)持穩(wěn)中求進(jìn)工作總基調(diào)，堅(jiān)持新發(fā)展理念，堅(jiān)持推動(dòng)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展，堅(jiān)持以供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革為主線，堅(jiān)持深化市場化改革、擴(kuò)大高水平開放，加快建設(shè)現(xiàn)代化經(jīng)濟(jì)體系，繼續(xù)打好三大攻堅(jiān)戰(zhàn)，著力激發(fā)微觀主體活力，創(chuàng)新和完善宏觀調(diào)控，統(tǒng)籌推進(jìn)穩(wěn)增長、促改革、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)、惠民生、防風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、保穩(wěn)定工作，保持經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行在合理區(qū)間，進(jìn)一步穩(wěn)就業(yè)、穩(wěn)金融、穩(wěn)外貿(mào)、穩(wěn)外資、穩(wěn)投資、穩(wěn)預(yù)期，提振市場信心，增強(qiáng)人民群眾獲得感、幸福感、安全感，保持經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)健康發(fā)展和社會(huì)大局穩(wěn)定，為全面建成小康社會(huì)收官打下決定性基礎(chǔ)，以優(yōu)異成績慶祝中華人民共和國成立70周年。
This year is the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. It will be a crucial year for us as we endeavor to achieve the first Centenary Goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. To fulfill the work of government, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, we must:
? follow the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era;
? implement fully the guiding principles of the Party’s 19th National Congress and the second and third plenary sessions of its 19th Central Committee;
? pursue coordinated progress in the five-sphere integrated plan;
? pursue balanced progress in the four-pronged comprehensive strategy;
? adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability;
? continue to apply the new development philosophy;
? continue to work for high-quality development;
? continue to pursue supply-side structural reform as our main task;
? continue to deepen market-orientated reforms and expand high-standard opening up;
? work faster to modernize the economy;
? continue the three critical battles;
? invigorate micro entities;
? explore innovations in and improve macro regulation;
? make coordinated efforts to maintain stable growth, advance reform, make structural adjustments, improve living standards, guard against risks, and ensure stability;
? keep major economic indicators within an appropriate range;
? take further steps to ensure stable employment, a stable financial sector, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable domestic investment, and stable expectations;
? boost market confidence;
? enable people to feel more satisfied, happy, and secure; and
? sustain healthy economic development and maintain social stability.
By doing the above, we will create the pivotal underpinning for completing the building of a moderately prosperous society and celebrate with outstanding accomplishments the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic.

綜合分析國內(nèi)外形勢，今年我國發(fā)展面臨的環(huán)境更復(fù)雜更嚴(yán)峻，可以預(yù)料和難以預(yù)料的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)挑戰(zhàn)更多更大，要做好打硬仗的充分準(zhǔn)備。困難不容低估，信心不可動(dòng)搖，干勁不能松懈。我國發(fā)展仍處于重要戰(zhàn)略機(jī)遇期，擁有足夠的韌性、巨大的潛力和不斷迸發(fā)的創(chuàng)新活力，人民群眾追求美好生活的愿望十分強(qiáng)烈。我們有戰(zhàn)勝各種困難挑戰(zhàn)的堅(jiān)定意志和能力，經(jīng)濟(jì)長期向好趨勢沒有也不會(huì)改變。
A full analysis of developments in and outside China shows that in pursuing development this year, we will face a graver and more complicated environment as well as risks and challenges, foreseeable and otherwise, that are greater in number and size. We must be fully prepared for a tough struggle. The difficulties we face must not be underestimated, our confidence must not be weakened, and the energy we bring to our work must not be allowed to wane. China is still in an important period of strategic opportunity for development and has ample resilience, enormous potential, and great creativity to unleash. The longing of our people for a better life is strong. We have the unshakable will and the ability needed to prevail over difficulties and challenges of any kind, and our economic fundamentals are sound and will remain sound over the long term.

今年經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的主要預(yù)期目標(biāo)是：國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長6%－6.5%；城鎮(zhèn)新增就業(yè)1100萬人以上，城鎮(zhèn)調(diào)查失業(yè)率5.5%左右，城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率4.5%以內(nèi)；居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格漲幅3%左右；國際收支基本平衡，進(jìn)出口穩(wěn)中提質(zhì)；宏觀杠桿率基本穩(wěn)定，金融財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有效防控；農(nóng)村貧困人口減少1000萬以上，居民收入增長與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長基本同步；生態(tài)環(huán)境進(jìn)一步改善，單位國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值能耗下降3%左右，主要污染物排放量繼續(xù)下降。上述主要預(yù)期目標(biāo)，體現(xiàn)了推動(dòng)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展要求，符合我國發(fā)展實(shí)際，與全面建成小康社會(huì)目標(biāo)相銜接，是積極穩(wěn)妥的。實(shí)現(xiàn)這些目標(biāo)，需要付出艱苦努力。
With the above in mind, the main projected targets for economic and social development this year are set as follows:
? GDP growth of 6–6.5 percent
? Over 11 million new urban jobs, a surveyed urban unemployment rate of around 5.5 percent, and a registered urban unemployment rate within 4.5 percent
? CPI increase of around 3 percent
? A basic equilibrium in the balance of payments, and stable, better-structured imports and exports
? A macro leverage ratio that is basically stable, and effective prevention and control of financial and fiscal risks
? A reduction of over 10 million in the rural poor population
? Personal income growth that is basically in step with economic growth
? A further improvement in the environment
? A drop of around 3 percent in energy consumption per unit of GDP
? Continued reductions in the discharge of major pollutants
The above projected targets are ambitious but realistic—they represent our aim of promoting high-quality development, are in keeping with the current realities of China’s development, and are aligned with the goal of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. But to realize these goals we need to redouble our efforts.

要正確把握宏觀政策取向，繼續(xù)實(shí)施積極的財(cái)政政策和穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策，實(shí)施就業(yè)優(yōu)先政策，加強(qiáng)政策協(xié)調(diào)配合，確保經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行在合理區(qū)間，促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)持續(xù)健康發(fā)展。
We will ensure that the right direction is set for the pursuit of our macro policies. We will continue to pursue a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, implement an employment-first policy, and strengthen the coordination between these policies to keep major economic indicators within an appropriate range and sustain healthy economic and social development.

積極的財(cái)政政策要加力提效。今年赤字率擬按2.8%安排，比去年預(yù)算高0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；財(cái)政赤字2.76萬億元，其中中央財(cái)政赤字1.83萬億元，地方財(cái)政赤字9300億元。適度提高赤字率，綜合考慮了財(cái)政收支、專項(xiàng)債券發(fā)行等因素，也考慮為應(yīng)對(duì)今后可能出現(xiàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)留出政策空間。今年財(cái)政支出超過23萬億元，增長6.5%。中央對(duì)地方均衡性轉(zhuǎn)移支付增長10.9%。改革完善縣級(jí)基本財(cái)力保障機(jī)制，緩解困難地區(qū)財(cái)政運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)壓力，決不讓基本民生保障出問題。
We will pursue a proactive fiscal policy with greater intensity and enhance its performance. Deficit-to-GDP ratio this year is projected at 2.8 percent, a 0.2-percentage-point increase over that of last year. The budgetary deficit is projected at 2.76 trillion yuan, with a central government deficit of 1.83 trillion yuan and a local government deficit of 0.93 trillion yuan. In moderately increasing the deficit-to-GDP ratio, we have given full consideration to factors such as government revenue and expenditure and the issuance of special bonds; we have also taken into account the need to leave policy space to address risks that could arise in the future.Government expenditure is budgeted at over 23 trillion yuan, a 6.5 percent increase. The central government’s transfer payments to local governments for equalizing access to basic public services will increase by 10.9 percent. We will reform and improve the mechanism for ensuring basic fiscal capacity at the county level, ease the pressure of budgetary constraints faced by some localities, and make certain that people’s basic living needs are met.

穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策要松緊適度。廣義貨幣M2和社會(huì)融資規(guī)模增速要與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值名義增速相匹配，以更好滿足經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行保持在合理區(qū)間的需要。在實(shí)際執(zhí)行中，既要把好貨幣供給總閘門，不搞“大水漫灌”，又要靈活運(yùn)用多種貨幣政策工具，疏通貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)渠道，保持流動(dòng)性合理充裕，有效緩解實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)特別是民營和小微企業(yè)融資難融資貴問題，防范化解金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。深化利率市場化改革，降低實(shí)際利率水平。完善匯率形成機(jī)制，保持人民幣匯率在合理均衡水平上的基本穩(wěn)定。
Our prudent monetary policy will be eased or tightened to the right degree. Increases in M2 money supply and aggregate financing should be in keeping with nominal GDP growth to keep major indicators within an appropriate range.In implementation, we will ensure the valve on aggregate monetary supply is well controlled and refrain from using a deluge of stimulus policies; but will also use flexibly a variety of monetary policy instruments to improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, maintain reasonably sufficient liquidity, effectively mitigate difficulties faced in the real economy, especially by private enterprises and small and micro businesses, in accessing affordable financing, and forestall and defuse financial risks. We will deepen reforms to strengthen the market’s role in setting interest rates and lower real interest rates. We will improve the exchange rate mechanism and keep the RMB exchange rate generally stable and at an adaptive and balanced level.

就業(yè)優(yōu)先政策要全面發(fā)力。就業(yè)是民生之本、財(cái)富之源。今年首次將就業(yè)優(yōu)先政策置于宏觀政策層面，旨在強(qiáng)化各方面重視就業(yè)、支持就業(yè)的導(dǎo)向。當(dāng)前和今后一個(gè)時(shí)期，我國就業(yè)總量壓力不減、結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾凸顯，新的影響因素還在增加，必須把就業(yè)擺在更加突出位置。穩(wěn)增長首要是為保就業(yè)。今年城鎮(zhèn)新增就業(yè)要在實(shí)現(xiàn)預(yù)期目標(biāo)的基礎(chǔ)上，力爭達(dá)到近幾年的實(shí)際規(guī)模，既保障城鎮(zhèn)勞動(dòng)力就業(yè)，也為農(nóng)業(yè)富余勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移就業(yè)留出空間。只要就業(yè)穩(wěn)、收入增，我們就更有底氣。
An employment-first policy will be pursued with full force. Employment is the cornerstone of wellbeing, and the wellspring of wealth. This year, for the first time, we are elevating the employment-first policy to the status of a macro policy. This is to increase society-wide attention to employment and support for it. Both in the immediate future and for some time to come, the pressure on aggregate job creation will continue unabated, the related structural issues will become more pronounced, and new factors that affect employment will continue to grow. All this means we must give greater priority to increasing employment. Maintaining stable growth, first and foremost, is to ensure employment. This year, on top of the urban job creation target, we will work to reach the actual employment figures of the past few years so as to ensure employment for the urban workforce while creating nonagricultural employment opportunities for the surplus rural workforce. With stable employment and increasing incomes, we can continue to be fully confident.

要繼續(xù)堅(jiān)持以供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革為主線，在“鞏固、增強(qiáng)、提升、暢通”八個(gè)字上下功夫。更多采取改革的辦法，更多運(yùn)用市場化、法治化手段，鞏固“三去一降一補(bǔ)”成果，增強(qiáng)微觀主體活力，提升產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈水平，暢通國民經(jīng)濟(jì)循環(huán)，推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展。
We will continue to pursue supply-side structural reform as our main task, focusing on consolidating, strengthening, upgrading, and ensuring unimpeded flows: we will use more reforms and means in accordance with market principles and law to consolidate the gains made in the five priority tasks; to strengthen the dynamism of micro entities; to upgrade industrial chains; and to ensure unimpeded flows in the economy, thus moving toward high-quality development.

要繼續(xù)打好三大攻堅(jiān)戰(zhàn)，精準(zhǔn)發(fā)力、務(wù)求實(shí)效。防范化解重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要強(qiáng)化底線思維，堅(jiān)持結(jié)構(gòu)性去杠桿，防范金融市場異常波動(dòng)，穩(wěn)妥處理地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，防控輸入性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。精準(zhǔn)脫貧要堅(jiān)持現(xiàn)行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，聚焦深度貧困地區(qū)和特殊貧困群體，加大攻堅(jiān)力度，提高脫貧質(zhì)量。污染防治要聚焦打贏藍(lán)天保衛(wèi)戰(zhàn)等重點(diǎn)任務(wù)，統(tǒng)籌兼顧、標(biāo)本兼治，使生態(tài)環(huán)境質(zhì)量持續(xù)改善。
We will continue the three critical battles and adopt precise measures to deliver solid outcomes.
To forestall and defuse major risks, we should be clear about potential dangers, continue structural deleveraging, forestall abnormal financial market fluctuations, deal prudently with local government debt risk, and guard against and control externally-generated risks. We will intensify precision poverty alleviation efforts in accordance with current standards, with the focus on deeply impoverished areas and the most vulnerable groups to deliver solid outcomes. In addressing pollution, we will focus on major priorities such as the fight to keep our skies blue, take a holistic approach, address both symptoms and root causes, and make continuous improvements to the environment.

做好今年政府工作，要注重把握好以下關(guān)系。
For the government to deliver this year, we need to get the following relationships right.

一要統(tǒng)籌好國內(nèi)與國際的關(guān)系，凝心聚力辦好自己的事。我國仍處于并將長期處于社會(huì)主義初級(jí)階段，仍是世界最大發(fā)展中國家。發(fā)展是解決我國一切問題的基礎(chǔ)和關(guān)鍵，必須牢牢扭住經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)這個(gè)中心，毫不動(dòng)搖堅(jiān)持發(fā)展是硬道理、發(fā)展應(yīng)該是科學(xué)發(fā)展和高質(zhì)量發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略思想，不斷解放和發(fā)展社會(huì)生產(chǎn)力。在國際形勢復(fù)雜多變的背景下，我們要保持戰(zhàn)略定力，按確定的目標(biāo)和部署推進(jìn)工作，更好利用國際國內(nèi)兩個(gè)市場兩種資源，敢于應(yīng)對(duì)挑戰(zhàn)，善于化危為機(jī)，牢牢把握發(fā)展主動(dòng)權(quán)。
First, we need to handle in a holistic way the relationship between domestic and international issues, and focus on running our own affairs well. China is still and will long remain in the primary stage of socialism; and it continues to be the world’s largest developing country. Development is the foundation of and key to solving all our country’s problems. We must pursue with dedication the central task of economic development, never falter in our commitment to the strategic thinking that development is of paramount importance and that it should be sound and of a high quality, and continue to unleash and develop productive forces. Against the backdrop of a complex and fast-changing international environment, we must maintain strategic focus and carry out work in accordance with the goals and plans already set. We should make better use of both international and domestic markets and resources, face challenges squarely, turn risks into opportunities, and remain firm in our commitment to pursuing development.

二要平衡好穩(wěn)增長與防風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)系，確保經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)健康發(fā)展。長期積累的諸多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隱患必須加以化解，但要遵循規(guī)律，講究方式方法，按照堅(jiān)定、可控、有序、適度要求，在發(fā)展中逐步化解，堅(jiān)決避免發(fā)生系統(tǒng)性、區(qū)域性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力加大情況下，出臺(tái)政策和工作舉措要有利于穩(wěn)預(yù)期、穩(wěn)增長、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)，防控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要把握好節(jié)奏和力度，防止緊縮效應(yīng)疊加放大，決不能讓經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行滑出合理區(qū)間。同時(shí)，也不能只顧眼前，采取損害長期發(fā)展的短期強(qiáng)刺激政策，產(chǎn)生新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隱患。
Second, we need to achieve the right balance in the relationship between maintaining stable growth and guarding against risks, to ensure sustained, healthy economic development. The many risks and potential problems that have built up over the years demand stronger mitigating action, but in doing so we need to observe objective laws and take the right approach. Our approach must be firm, controllable, and systematic, and it should be applied with the right degree of intensity. We need to defuse risks step by step in the course of pursuing development and decisively forestall any systemic or regional risks. Against the backdrop of mounting downward pressure on the economy, the policies and measures we adopt should ensure stable expectations, stable growth, and structural adjustments. In working to forestall and control risks, we need to get the pace and intensity right. We should see that the effects of tightening are not amplified, and we must never allow economic indicators to slide out of the appropriate range. At the same time, we must not attend only to immediate concerns or adopt short-term strong stimulus policies that will end up undermining long-term development and generating new risks.

三要處理好政府與市場的關(guān)系，依靠改革開放激發(fā)市場主體活力。只要市場主體有活力，就能增強(qiáng)內(nèi)生發(fā)展動(dòng)力、頂住經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力。要大力推進(jìn)改革開放，加快建立統(tǒng)一開放、競爭有序的現(xiàn)代市場體系，放寬市場準(zhǔn)入，加強(qiáng)公正監(jiān)管，打造法治化、國際化、便利化的營商環(huán)境，讓各類市場主體更加活躍。
Third, we need to balance the relationship between government and market, and energize market entities through reform and opening up. As long as market entities are energized, we can boost the internal forces driving development and withstand the downward pressure on the economy. We must work hard to advance reform and opening up, speed up the establishment of a unified and open, competitive and orderly modern market system, relax restrictions on market access, ensure impartial regulation, and create a business environment based on rule of law that is internationalized and enabling, in order to energize market entities.

從根本上說，市場活力和社會(huì)創(chuàng)造力源于億萬人民積極性的發(fā)揮。要堅(jiān)持以人民為中心的發(fā)展思想，盡力而為、量力而行，切實(shí)保障基本民生，推動(dòng)解決重點(diǎn)民生問題，促進(jìn)社會(huì)公平正義，讓人民過上好日子。中國人民勤勞智慧，具有無限的創(chuàng)新創(chuàng)造潛能，只要充分釋放出來，中國的發(fā)展就一定會(huì)有更為廣闊空間。
Ultimately, market vitality and social creativity stem from the initiative of hundreds of millions of people being put into action. We must stay true to the vision of people-centered development and do everything within our capacity to meet people’s basic needs, resolve key problems affecting living standards, promote social fairness and justice, and help our people achieve better lives. The Chinese are an industrious and talented people and possess boundless potential for innovation and creativity. All we need to do is unleash that potential and the space for China’s development going forward will doubtless be vast.