去年12月以來中美關(guān)系的緊張態(tài)勢引起全世界的關(guān)注。特朗普政府持續(xù)而系統(tǒng)地在戰(zhàn)略、經(jīng)濟(jì)、外交和文化領(lǐng)域?qū)χ袊l(fā)起攻擊。美國去年12月發(fā)表的《國家安全戰(zhàn)略》報(bào)告將中國定義為戰(zhàn)略競爭者和主要對(duì)手，五角大樓有關(guān)中國軍事和安全動(dòng)向的年度報(bào)告也與此相呼應(yīng)。此外，副總統(tǒng)邁克·彭斯在10月4日指責(zé)中國干預(yù)美國大選。特朗普總統(tǒng)對(duì)中國征收高關(guān)稅，并威脅如果中國以同樣方式回應(yīng)的話還會(huì)加征更多。而在同時(shí)，中國決心不開第一槍，但是會(huì)反擊。中國還與國際社會(huì)多數(shù)成員一道努力維護(hù)自由貿(mào)易，反對(duì)保護(hù)主義，捍衛(wèi)基于規(guī)則的經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序。也因此很多人擔(dān)心會(huì)出現(xiàn)一場新的冷戰(zhàn)。

The tensions in China-US relations have caught the world's attention since last December. The Trump administration has consistently and systematically launched attacks against China on strategic, economic, diplomatic, and cultural fronts. Last December the US National Security Strategy report defined China as its strategic competitor and main adversary. This was echoed by the Pentagon's annual report on China's military and security developments. Moreover, on October 4 this year Vice President Mike Pence accused China of meddling in American elections. President Trump imposes high tariffs and threatens more if China reacts in the same manner. In the meantime, China is determined not to fire the first shot, but it will hit back. China also works with the majority of international community to preserve free trade, oppose protectionism, and defend the rule-based economic order. Therefore, many people are concerned that there will be a new Cold War.

主要國家之間的分歧日漸加大，全球體系受到侵蝕。中美兩國在南海和臺(tái)灣問題上采取的立場有可能導(dǎo)致正面沖突。越來越多的人把當(dāng)前形勢與冷戰(zhàn)開始時(shí)的上世紀(jì)40年代末進(jìn)行比較。一些人甚至談到一場世界大戰(zhàn)的意外爆發(fā)。

Major countries' differences are widening. The global system is eroding. The two countries are adopting stances on the Taiwan question and the South China Sea that can lead to head-on collisions. More and more people are making comparisons between now and the late 1940s when the Cold War started. Some people even are talking about accidentally starting a World War.

但一場新冷戰(zhàn)并非不可避免。首先，當(dāng)前世界的大趨勢是和平、發(fā)展與合作共贏。國際社會(huì)大多數(shù)成員都明白，在全球化時(shí)代它們比以往任何時(shí)候都更加相互依存，因此必須接受合作而不是對(duì)抗。雖然特朗普政府讓美國退出了部分國際機(jī)構(gòu)，包括巴黎氣候變化協(xié)議、聯(lián)合國人權(quán)委員會(huì)、中程導(dǎo)彈條約，但世界不會(huì)允許二戰(zhàn)前發(fā)生的國際秩序崩潰再次重演，國際社會(huì)大多數(shù)成員仍然是主張合作的。最近的一個(gè)例子就是10月在布魯塞爾舉行的第12屆“亞歐會(huì)議”（ASEM），亞洲和歐洲在這次會(huì)議上攜手捍衛(wèi)多邊主義，批評(píng)保護(hù)主義。

But a new Cold War is not inevitable. Firstly, the present general trends of the world are peace, development, and win-win cooperation. Most of the international community understands that in the age of globalization, they are more interdependent than ever before. Therefore, they must embrace cooperation rather than confrontation. As the Trump administration withdraws the US from a number of international institutions, including the Paris Climate Change Agreement, the UN Human Rights Commission, and the Middle Range Guided Missile Treaty, the world will not allow the reoccurrence of the collapse of the international order that happened before WWII. On the contrary, most members of the international community still advocate for cooperation. The recent case in point is the 12th Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) Summit in Brussels in October, at which Asia and Europe joined hands in defending multilateralism and criticizing protectionism.

其次，不具備新冷戰(zhàn)的一般條件。上世紀(jì)40年代后期冷戰(zhàn)發(fā)生時(shí)，美國與蘇聯(lián)幾乎沒有經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化和社會(huì)聯(lián)系。后來兩個(gè)超級(jí)大國建立了北約和華約，以及西方經(jīng)濟(jì)集團(tuán)和經(jīng)互會(huì)?，F(xiàn)在的世界不再分成兩個(gè)對(duì)立的陣營。整個(gè)世界都意識(shí)到，新冷戰(zhàn)不僅有反作用，而且是災(zāi)難性的。全球化世界中的新冷戰(zhàn)將為更危險(xiǎn)的恐怖主義、極端主義和分裂主義提供溫床，加劇社會(huì)的分裂和對(duì)抗。而且，新冷戰(zhàn)會(huì)打破全球生產(chǎn)鏈。與上世紀(jì)40年代后期世界在對(duì)立的意識(shí)形態(tài)下分裂不同，如今國際社會(huì)絕大多數(shù)成員尋求的是進(jìn)一步發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)和改善生活。

Secondly, there are no general conditions for a new Cold War. When the Cold War took place in the late 1940s, the United States and the Soviet Union had few economic, cultural, and social contacts. Later on the two superpowers built up NATO and the Warsaw Pact, as well as the Western economic bloc and the Council for Mutual Economic Aid (Comecon). The present world is no longer being divided into two confrontational camps. The world as a whole realizes that a new Cold War is not only counter-productive but catastrophic. A new Cold War in the globalized world would provide a hot-bed to more dangerous terrorism, extremism and secessionism, and exacerbate social division and confrontation. Moreover, a new Cold War will break up the chains of global production. Unlike the late 1940s when the world was divided along confrontational ideologies, the great majority of the international community is for further development and a better life.

第三，美國沒有能力發(fā)動(dòng)一場全面冷戰(zhàn)。即使美國想發(fā)動(dòng)一場新的冷戰(zhàn)，也很難找到理由在美國國內(nèi)說服美國人民，在國際上動(dòng)員其盟國和友邦。美國人民已經(jīng)看到足夠的證據(jù)，證明正常的、合作的對(duì)華關(guān)系符合其自身利益，他們不會(huì)允許這種關(guān)系落入新冷戰(zhàn)的陷阱。從國際上說，美國許多盟國和友邦都是中國的戰(zhàn)略伙伴，它們不會(huì)選邊站隊(duì)。歐洲國家和日本正在謀求與中國建立獨(dú)立的互惠互利關(guān)系。美國當(dāng)局遲早會(huì)意識(shí)到新冷戰(zhàn)是走不通的。

Thirdly, the United States does not have the capability to wage an all-out Cold War. Even if the United States wants to wage a new Cold War, it could hardly find reasons to convince the American people domestically and mobilize its allies and friends internationally. The American people have seen enough evidence that a normal and cooperative relationship with China is in their own interests and they would not allow this relationship to fall into the trap of a new Cold War. Internationally speaking, many allies and friends of the United States are China's strategic partners. They will not choose sides. The European countries and Japan are seeking independent and mutually beneficially relations with China. Sooner or later, the American establishment will come to realize that a new Cold War is a dead-end.

第四，中國會(huì)努力避免新的冷戰(zhàn)。中國已經(jīng)與上世紀(jì)40年代末和50年代初完全不同，如今中國是世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，擁有極大的影響力。中國正在通過一種新型國際關(guān)系努力構(gòu)建“人類命運(yùn)共同體”。面對(duì)美國發(fā)起的攻擊，中國一再主張合作是中美關(guān)系的唯一正確選擇，并堅(jiān)持不對(duì)抗、不沖突、相互尊重、合作共贏原則。因此，中國的力量和智慧非常有助于世界避免新的冷戰(zhàn)。

Fourthly, China tries hard to avoid a new Cold War. China is totally different from how it was in the late 1940s and early 1950s. Now China is the world's number two economy with a great deal of clout. China is striving for a Community of Shared Future For Mankind through a new type of international relations. In the face of the US-initiated attacks, China repeatedly advocates cooperation as the only right choice for China-US relations and insists on the principles of non-confrontation, non-conflict, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation. Therefore, China's strength and wisdom can tremendously help the world to avoid a new Cold War.

最后同樣重要的是，中美關(guān)系已有了一些積極發(fā)展的跡象。中國在言論和行動(dòng)上的反擊是有分寸的，是克制的。美國國務(wù)卿和國防部長已經(jīng)降低了他們的調(diào)門，開始談及對(duì)話和溝通。最重要的是，習(xí)近平主席和唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)將在11月底舉行的阿根廷G20峰會(huì)上會(huì)面。人們可以謹(jǐn)慎樂觀地認(rèn)為，理性和政治家風(fēng)范最終將占上風(fēng)，中美關(guān)系將重新走上正軌。

Last but not least, there are already some signs of positive development in China-US relations. China's counter rhetoric and actions have been measured and restrained. The US Secretaries of State and Defense have toned down their voices and started to talk about dialogue and communication. Most importantly, President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump will meet at the G-20 Argentina Summit at the end of November. People can be cautiously optimistic that rationality and statesmanship will prevail eventually, and China-US relations will come back to the right track.

作者：楊潔勉，前上海國際問題研究院院長

（來源：中美聚焦網(wǎng)，編輯：Helen）