?

From the safety of my polluted perch in Beijing, I was thinking how much difference one year could make to gun control in the United States. In this short interval, Americans have stopped mourning in America and gone back to business as usual.

After the tragedy of Newtown, Connecticut, in which 20-year-old Adam Lanza gunned down 26 elementary school students and adults, there was nationwide grief, shock and anger, with many people calling for more gun control measures. The gun lobby, however, led by the National Rifle Association, called not for more controls but for more guns in schools in the hands of armed security guards. They claimed that gun control was the problem, not the guns.

In his 2013 State of the Union address, President Barack Obama devoted no less than five paragraphs to addressing the epidemic of gun-related deaths in the US. He did so while former House of Representatives member Gabriel Giffords, a near fatality in a shooting at a shopping center, was sitting with First Lady Michelle Obama and with other victims of gun violence. Obama called for a ban on both high-capacity ammunition clips and assault weapons, and for background checks on the buyer of any weapon. The result of all the angst and grieving: even a much weakened version of the president's call for background checks was killed by a Senate filibuster.

All that Obama could muster in the recent speech to Congress were two tepid sentences: "I have seen the courage of parents, students, pastors and police officers all over this country who say 'we are not afraid" and "I intend to keep trying, with or without Congress, to help stop more tragedies...." Yet as Giffords noted, it is Congress that is afraid of the gun lobby.

In the vacuum of congressional action, many states decided to act on their own. While there were some bright spots like the election of a pro-gun control governor in the National Rifle Association's home state of Virginia, the results favor less gun control. A mere 39 measures restricting gun control were passed in states mostly controlled by Democrats. But in states mostly controlled by Republicans, 70 measures liberalizing gun ownership became law.

Perhaps most ominously, in the swing state of Colorado where a shooting in a cinema left a dozen people dead, the fear that Giffords ascribed to Congress also extends to the state legislature. Last year, Colorado was one of the states to enact tougher gun control measures such as requiring background checks on any prospective gun buyer. Enraged, the gun lobby mounted recall campaigns that resulted in the ousting of two pro-gun control lawmakers and the resignation of a third.

As the spokesperson for the Gun Owners of America said, "What happened in Colorado should send shock waves through every legislator's heart that's been supportive of gun control." And he is right on target. This is an election year in which one-third of the US Senate, all of the House of Representatives, and many state legislative and gubernatorial races will be fought. Few of the incumbents want to touch this potentially lethal political issue now, if ever. In this epic gun battle, the gun lobby is the clear winner.

The prognosis is not good. In January 2014 alone, there were 11 school shootings. Former school principal Bill Bond has said that young people who bring weapons to school are "males confronting hopelessness". He should know. In 1997, his high school was where a 14-year-old shot a girls' prayer group, killing three students and wounding five. As Bond said, "schools are still part of American society and American society is violent".

By some estimates there are as many as 400 million privately owned guns in the US and 900 people die in gun violence, including suicides, every day. None of those guns will ever be confiscated by the government and mental health programs will continue to be underfunded.

I cannot help but conclude that the violence will continue unabated in our modern day wild west that is the United States. Despite the pollution, my Beijing cough, and the perils of Chinese drivers, I'll take my chances in Beijing.

The author, Harvey Dzodin,?is a senior adviser to Tsinghua University and a former vice-president of ABC Television.

（中國日報網英語點津 Helen 編輯）

?